The Pants Predicts: Iowa vs Ohio State
· Yahoo Sports
The Hawkeyes passed a major test a week ago when they went into Ann Arbor and walked out with a walk off win. But there’s no rest for the weary as Iowa returns home to face an even bigger test this week with the #5 Ohio State Buckeyes in town.
OSU is a virtual juggernaut that started the season ranked #1 in the nation and save for a 4th quarter collapse against the now-#1 Texas Longhorns, they would be widely considered the top team in the country. The folks in Vegas are certainly treating them that way. Despite this one being in Iowa City and the Hawkeyes jumping up to #14 in the nation, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Buckeyes favored by a whopping 14.5 points in a game with an over/under that has climbed from 44.5 up to 45.5 total points. That gives us an implied final score of Ohio State 30, Iowa 15.5.
Visit truewildgame.com for more information.
Here at The Pants, call it unwarranted optimism coming off the win, but we think this one might be a bit closer. While none of us has the guts to call for an outright upset against the Death Star, our consensus final score prediction is Ohio State 30.8, Iowa 20.2. While that’s still a double digit loss, it’s well on the side of the Hawks getting the points and pretty comfortably on the over this wee.
As a quick reminder, a week ago we called for a final score of Michigan 18, Iowa 15, taking the points on the Hawks and the under. We went 1-1 with the over hitting (although if you were able to thread the needle at the right time last week you could have scored the under on 39.5). That puts us at 2-6 on the year. What does that mean for the fade The Pants folks? No idea. Maybe Iowa pulls this out? Maybe they get absolutely blown away?
Anyway, here’s a look at our individual predictions for Saturday’s showdown.
HWKTACO
My logical and analytical head tells me that OSU with all its blue-chip player$ will be too talented and too athletic for Iowa to hang with through four quarters. But my Black Heart tugs me in the opposite direction, saying that Iowa will find a way to will itself to another victory this Saturday in a striped Kinnick. My internal debate with myself feels torn between partly analytical, partly emotional, and partly intuitive.
When OSU won their last national championship in 2024 they knocked down other teams like bowling pins. As is usually the case, their offense was elite. But what pushed them into the stratosphere was that their defense was elite as well. That is not so much the case with the 2026 edition of OSU. Thus far in 2026, OSU is allowing 170 rushing yards per game vs. P4 opponents.
Ohio State star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is a junior and has already claimed the program’s all-time career receiving yards record. Couple that with quarterback Julian Sayin and it is a one-two knockout TKO. Just Sayin. The best defense for Iowa against these two is to keep them off the field with an offense that has a consistent run game that eats up lots of clock and a passing game that’s good enough to keep the defense guessing.
In the end, I feel compelled to go with OSU for the win. And if I’m wrong, my Black Heart will never let me hear the end of it.
Iowa 24, OSU 31
GlendaleHawk
OSU is an offen$ive juggernaut, with the nation’s most efficient QB and best WR. As HWKTACO noted, Sayin to Smith is a potential knockout punch on just about every play. They also have two more very good WRs (Devin McCuin, Brandon Inniss), a TE in Nate Roberts who will definitely be playing on Sundays, and a RB named Bo who average 5.7 ypc. He may not be as good as the man he’s named after, but, well, no one ever will be and 5.7 ypc is pretty damn good.
Iowa is not exactly bringing knives to a gun fight this year, but this offense hasn’t proven to anyone that it can hang with the best of the B18 just yet. It’s better than we’ve seen in a while, and Hank Brown is getting better every game, but the OLine cannot lose at the LoS like it did last week if Iowa wants to have any hope of beating the Buckeyes on Saturday.
I want to believe that Iowa can win this game, and part of me does, but that only happens if OSU makes the types of mistakes that it has avoided making so far this season, outside of 1 bad quarter. Iowa will need to force some turnovers if they want to have a chance to win this game, and a S/T touchdown wouldn’t hurt either, but I just don’t think that this OSU team is going to start making stupid mistakes, and while I think Iowa can hang around and keep it close, I don’t think they’ll have enough to get it done.
Iowa 21, OSU 31
David Fidler
I want to predict an Iowa win, but I don’t see it happening. Though, in some fairness, I didn’t see it happening in 2017 either. On the bright side, all the pressure is on OSU. They lose and the playoffs are a long shot. They lose and Ryan Day’s seat becomes smoking hot. The college football world is looking at Ohio State in this game, not Iowa. Conversely, the Hawkeyes are playing with house money; all they really have to do is be competitive, but a loss, even a 14-point loss, doesn’t change any of their goals or national perception.
Unfortunately, I see OSU taking an early lead and taking the crowd out of it. Iowa will have a chance to get into a shootout, but won’t be able to take advantage of its opportunities. Ohio State goes into the half up 24-10. In the second half, the Buckeyes salt it away.
Iowa 20, OSU 34
Braedan Garrett
I have more confidence in this Hawkeyes squad going against Ohio State than most other years. Iowa playing Ohio State has always felt like trying to kill an elephant with a butter knife. This year, Iowa’s offense is leaps and bounds better than when they last played two years ago, and playing at Kinnick should give them some much needed juice. This year, it feels more like trying to kill an elephant with a steak knife, but one that has those little pokey bits along the edge.
I don’t think Iowa can win this game the same way they beat Michigan, this week they have to come out firing and keep firing for as long as they can. OSU gave up 462 yards against Illinois, 199 of them on the ground. Yards can be gained against the Buckeyes. But the Illini only scored 19. What good are yards with no points to show for them? Iowa has to succeed where Illinois failed. Three and outs are a surefire way to find yourself down 21-0 in the first with the Kinnick crowed completely out of it.
On defense? If you have any idea how to stop Jeremiah Smith I’m all ears, because I’ve got nothing. But if anyone can limit the damage, I trust Phil Parker.
I don’t think Iowa wins, but they put up a damn good fight.
OSU 34, Iowa 23
Matt Reisener
Fresh off what could be a season-defining win at Michigan, Iowa gets another high-profile matchup against an Ohio State team with serious national title aspirations. The Buckeyes are every bit as good as their #5 ranking suggests. Yes, Ohio State blew a 20-point fourth-quarter lead to Texas in Week Two, but they were also good enough to have led the top-ranked Longhorns by 20 points on the road. Jeremiah Smith is one of the most talented collegiate receivers in decades, and has the potential to torment Iowa’s secondary in a way fans haven’t seen since David Bell went pro.
The Hawkeye pass defense looked shaky at times against Michigan and struggled to match the physicality of their receivers. Iowa has no shot to stop Smith one-on-one, and they haven’t shown an ability to consistently pressure the QB with a four-man rush. But can Phil Parker’s defense find a way to limit OSU’s other playmakers? Texas allowed Jeremiah Smith to get his yards but contained the Buckeye offense by preventing any other Ohio State players from doing much damage. Meanwhile, Iowa’s best chance to move the ball on offense may involve passing to set up the run, something Ferentz is often reluctant to do. The Hawkeyes have not proven they can run the ball against a competent defense, but how much trust did Hank Brown and the passing game earn after last week’s game-winning drive? Will Ferentz allow the Hawkeye offense to air it out early—and if so, can Iowa reward that confidence?
Kinnick Stadium will be the loudest it’s been since Penn State came to town in 2021, and both the fans and players will be poised to give Ohio State all it can handle. While the Buckeyes have the edge in this game, a strong start from the Hawkeyes could allow them to ride their momentum from last week to another statement victory.
Ohio State 24, Iowa 16
JPinIC
Watching Iowa pull out a win in Ann Arbor a week ago, I was reminded of some of the truly special seasons we’ve witnessed under KF and how the difference between years like that and the one we had just a season ago is often one or two key plays. Those have gone the way of the Hawkeyes against Iowa State and Michigan.
But Ohio State is another animal. For years, we’ve seen Ferentz take a different approach to facing the Buckeyes vs other top teams. Slowing this down into a rock fight simply doesn’t work because try as you might, you’re not going to simply eliminate big plays from OSU. Jeremiah Smith is going to break a big one, probably multiple. Iowa is going to have to score points to keep up and they’re going to have to do it against one of the top defenses they’ll play all season.
I’m hopeful the Hawkeyes will find a way to establish more of a run game than they did a week ago and the way Hank Brown finished that win in Ann Arbor is certainly reason for optimism. I just don’t think we see Iowa show enough fire power to keep up this week without another special teams TD or multiple turnovers from Julian Sayin.
Ohio State 31, Iowa 17
So there you have it, not a lot of optimism here. What about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those final score predictions in the comments below!