LILLEY: Poll shows voters trust Mark Carney more than Pierre Poilievre
· Toronto Sun
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It’s silly season when it comes to political polling in Canada. The lead the Carney Liberals hold, according to polls from the last two weeks, ranges from four points to 20 points and everything in between.
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I don’t buy it.
That’s not because I don’t believe polls. It’s because we’re months, if not years, away from an election and it’s the middle of summer. Most Canadians are thinking about cottages, beaches and BBQs, not politics. The real trends will emerge in the fall when voters tune back in.
The poll that matters
All of that said, there is one poll of interest that has nothing to do with horse-race numbers and should concern Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.
In the most recent Leger poll for Postmedia, a sample of 1,514 Canadian residents aged 18 and older was split into two groups. One half, 757 Canadians, were presented with a policy proposal and asked whether they trusted Mark Carney to implement it, while the other half were asked whether they trusted Poilievre to implement the same policy.
The results show a lack of trust in Poilievre compared to Carney, and an overexuberance regarding Carney’s abilities.
The troubling finding for Conservatives isn’t that Carney is ahead on traditionally Liberal issues. It’s that he’s ahead on issues that should belong to Poilievre.
On issues ranging from infrastructure to expanding oil and gas production, immigration to securing a deal with Donald Trump, Canadians strongly favour Carney over Poilievre. This wasn’t a head-to-head question about which leader respondents preferred. They were asked whether they trusted either leader to implement specific policies.
On the question of immigration, half the respondents were asked whether they trusted Carney to implement a specific policy, while the other half were asked whether they trusted Poilievre. The policy stated: “We should allow fewer immigrants into Canada to ease the pressure on Canada’s health-care system as well as the demand for housing.”
Canadians may dislike the Liberal record on immigration, but this poll suggests many still trust Carney more than Poilievre to fix the problem. Carney is trusted by 69% of those polled to implement the policy, while Poilievre is trusted by just 56%.
If immigration is surprising, the results on defence and energy should be downright alarming for Conservatives.
Conservative territory
On increasing Canada’s NATO commitments and defending the Arctic, another area where Conservatives should lead, Carney is trusted by 60% compared to Poilievre’s 46%.
On expanding energy production and building more oil and gas pipelines, it’s 62% for Carney and 51% for Poilievre.
The worst score for Carney comes on getting a trade deal with the United States, with just 50% trusting him to get the job done compared to 38% who trust Poilievre.
Incumbents almost always enjoy an advantage on questions of competence. Prime ministers get credit for governing while opposition leaders are judged on potential. That’s not entirely fair, but it’s political reality.
A warning, not a death sentence
On the other hand, Poilievre clearly has a trust problem with the electorate writ large. He needs to find a way to convince voters that he can get the job done, especially in areas where Carney cannot.
At the moment, one area of weakness for Carney is getting a deal with Trump , which was his main selling point in last year’s election.
This poll isn’t fatal for Poilievre. In fact, it should be instructive as he prepares for the fall sitting of the House of Commons.
Polls measuring voting intention can swing wildly during the summer months. Polls measuring trust are harder to dismiss.
This survey suggests Poilievre’s challenge isn’t getting Canadians to agree with him. It’s getting them to believe he can deliver.
Until he solves that problem, Carney will continue to enjoy an advantage that goes far beyond the horse race.