Why ‘There’s no logical reason to expect the 49ers’ injury plague to extend into a third year’
· Yahoo Sports
FTN Fantasy released its chapters for each team. As you might expect, the topic of injuries dominated the San Francisco 49ers.
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The Niners were once again in the top five in adjusted games lost in 2025. The 115 games lost were an improvement from the 141.2 in 2024. FTN admitted their metrics couldn’t explain what happened to San Francisco last season:
Adjusted games lost is weighted toward injuries to starters and key reserves, and even accounts for games when such players are not 100% (listed as “questionable” on the final injury report, for example). It is more accurate than a raw count of games or players lost when representing a team’s overall suffering level. Our metrics, however, aren’t equipped to tell the full story of what happened to the 49ers in 2025. For example, while AGL differentiates starters from bit players, it does not differentiate starters from All-Pros, such as Nick Bosa, George Kittle, and Fred Warner, all of whom missed significant time in 2025.
It’s impossible to quantify the loss of arguably your three most impactful players. The 49ers have structured their roster around the team’s All-Pros. When they’re not on the field, everything changes. It’s also difficult to weigh the value of positions at specific positions, like wide receiver and edge rusher:
Raw AGL figures don’t truly express the impact of injuries clustered in specific position groups. The 49ers suffered 28.5 AGL among their edge rushers, the highest figure in the NFL. They suffered 27.1 AGL at wide receiver, second only to the Buccaneers. The 49ers were down to third-stringers and free agents at key positions at various times throughout the year. That can cripple a team more than the absence of a starter here and a starter there.
It’s no surprise that the Niners went out and drafted a wide receiver and an edge rusher first to strengthen their depth at those positions and to have more formidable backups in the event of another injury.
The 49ers had a plethora of injuries in August that went unaddressed. AGL data doesn’t account for preseason injuries. Dominick Puni had a preseason injury that lingered for the first month and a half of the season. Mac Jones sprained an ankle during the preseason and missed time. Jaco Cowing, Trent Taylor, Corey Kiner, Jordan James, and Patrick Taylor all missed time. The 49ers had to make trades for Brian Robinson and Skyy Moore because they didn’t have enough bodies at wideout and running back.
Pick a position, and you could probably find an injury:
So while the 49ers’ injury rates last year were not historically extraordinary, the team still found itself in a unique and ever-evolving predicament. In addition to losing key All-Pros and much of their edge rush and receiver corps, the 49ers lost Brock Purdy for eight starts. They lost their first, third, fourth, and fifth-round picks for large chunks of the season. Their 2024 first-round pick missed October and half of November. If you could name a 49ers regular, and he wasn’t Christian McCaffrey, he was probably hurt for a significant part of the 2025 season.
Given the injuries, it’s nearly miraculous that the 49ers won 12-regular-season games, plus a playoff game. They went 5-3 with Mac Jones at quarterback. They went 7-3 in the regular season when both Bosa and Warner were on the IR. A defense with a guy named Garret Wallow and Sam Okuayinonu playing signfiicant roles held the Eagles to 15 points in a playoff upset.
There’s no logical reason to expect the 49ers’ injury plague to extend into a third year.
The 49ers’ long run as one of the league’s more injured teams goes back to three years before Shanahan and general manager John Lynch arrived in 2017. We can’t provide case-by-case updates for other injured 49ers because it would make the print edition of this Almanac weigh 80 pounds. Most offseason prognoses, however, were encouraging. Central tendency should drag the 49ers back toward the median when it comes to injuries.
The 49ers added bigger bodies at receiver in Mike Evans and De’Zhaun Stribling. The same is true for defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, who comes in with as clean a health bill as it gets for a pro.
The Niners have positioned themselves to be healthier in 2026, but luck hasn’t been on their side in some time. Will that be any different this year?