BYU Bracketology: Where does BYU Sit Heading into Big 12 Tournament?
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BYU’s win over Texas Tech was big on just about every level you can think of — it sent the seniors and AJ out with a win in their final home game, it gave the team and fans a morale and confidence boost, and it gave BYU’s resume another quality win as BYU seeks to solidify its seeding heading into the Big 12 Tournament.
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BYU opens Big 12 Tournament play Tuesday versus Kansas State. KenPom predicts a 90-79 BYU wins and gives the Cougs a 79% win probability.
Resume Numbers
BYU Record: 21-10
NET: 24
KenPom: 25
WAB (wins above bubble): 23rd — The committee has made a point that this is an important metric in the selection process. It measures the number of wins a team has against its schedule relative to how an average bubble team would fare against that same schedule.
NET SOS: 12
NET OOC SOS: 50
Quad 1: 7-8
- Quad 1A: 2-6
Quad 2: 6-2
Quad 3: 3-0
Quad 4: 5-0
How Could the Big 12 Tournament Impact BYU’s Seeding?
BYU opens against a Kansas State team that is 12-19 and 3-15 in the Big 12. BYU beat the Wildcats on the road 83-73 in the Big 12 opener back on January 3. Kansas State won’t do anything to materially help BYU’s resume, but at this point they are 99 in NET and would barely qualify as a Quad 2 win. Wins against teams 51-100 in NET on a neutral floor are considered Quad 2. The committee in the past has referenced a teams record in Q1 + Q2 games, so a win could have a bit of value if K State can remain in the top 100.
If BYU takes care of business versus the Wildcats, then they would play 7 seed West Virginia on Thursday. BYU nearly completed road comeback against West Virginia just over a week ago, but the Mountaineers held on for an 8-point win. West Virginia is 58 in NET, meaning it would be a chance for another Quad 2 win over BYU. I expect BYU would be favored over WVU.
If BYU can get by that, then they would play Houston on Thursday. Let’s be honest, BYU isn’t getting past Houston. The red Cougs are just the better team and BYU would be playing their third game in three days versus a rested Houston time. Ideally BYU doesn’t get blown out and you certainly wouldn’t say no to a unlikely win, but at that point I think BYU would be happy getting out with no injuries and allowing themselves to rest a week before the NCAA Tournament starts.
What is BYU’s likely NCAA Tournament Seed?
BYU will likely be a 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Even with a loss to Kansas State, I think BYU would stay at the 7 line. BYU has enough quality wins, including two Quad 1A wins without Richie Saunders, and a Kansas State loss would be a Quad 2 loss. A win over the Wildcats would give BYU a chance to be on the 6 seed line, and another one over West Virginia would help those chances.
After Saturday’s win, Bracket Matrix has BYU as the final 6 seed, up from 7 the day prior. Going into the conference tournament there seems to be a gap between the top three 6 six seeds and the others vying for that final 6 seed. BYU/Kentucky/St Mary’s are the most likely to get that final 6 seed. Miami or Villanova could be threats if they make a run in their conference tournament, but they likely would need to do just that. Below is a resume comparison for BYU/Kentucky/St Mary’s.
Pretty close between the three. BYU wins in Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, Kentucky edges out in best wins and SOS, and St Mary’s has the nod in overall record and NET/KenPom/SOS. If St Mary’s wins the WCC Tournament and gets another win over Gonzaga, that might be enough for them to get a 6 seed. If they don’t, then I think it’s a battle between BYU and Kentucky for the final 6 seed. If the committee prioritizes Q1+Q2 wins and WAB, then BYU probably gets the edge. BYU has that extra Q1 win and three more Q1+Q2 wins, which is a separator. If the committee make the call on best wins, then Kentucky edges out. Kentucky’s biggest selling point over BYU is that they have true road wins at Arkansas and Tennessee, two tournament teams. BYU doesn’t have any true road wins over tourney teams. If the committee thinks its a dead heat between the two after conference tournaments, then Richie Saunders’ injury could ding BYU. All that said, its close between BYU and UK and both team’s performance in the conference tourney could impact seeding.
Conclusion
There is a clear tier of the top teams in college basketball. The 4 projected one seeds — Michigan/Arizona/Duke/Florida — all are playing a cut above everyone else. I also see a tier between the 2 and 3 seeds. UConn/Houston/Michigan State/Illinois all seem better than teams like Purdue, Nebraska, and Gonzaga. BYU could easily lose to any 11 or 10 seed in the first round. If I am being greedy, I want BYU as a 6 seed because I think there is a material difference between a 2 or 3 seed they can see in the second round depending on if they are a 6 or 7.
All that said, Texas Tech gave us renewed hope that BYU could make a run to the second weekend of the tournament. And with AJ Dybantsa leading the way, BYU will have a fighting chance against just about anyone they will see the rest of the way.