NFL Week 6 Sunday Night Football Best Bets—Cowboys At Packers
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Jordan Love has cleared 300 passing yards in three of five games this season.
Getty ImagesNFL Week 6’s Sunday Night Football game should be a treat for fans and bettors who enjoy offense. The Green Bay Packers are 1.5-point favorites at home against the visiting Dallas Cowboys, and the game’s total is 53.5 points. It should be a shootout.
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Both teams have quarterbacks willing to sling it and a pair of supremely talented wideouts. Only one team has a reliable workhorse running back.
The team with the lackluster running back options should run through their rocket-armed quarterback and one of their top pass-catching weapons. Taking their standard player prop lines would be fine. However, both have demonstrated significant volatility this year. Instead of taking those lines for median games, leaning into their variance and chasing their boom outputs makes a great deal of sense in favorable matchups for both players.
NFL Week 6: Sunday Night Football Best Player Props
- Jordan Love 300+ Passing Yards (+169) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Christian Watson 100+ Receiving Yards (+209) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers - QB)
Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season, Jordan Love ranks fourth in passing yards per game (281.6), 11th in yards per pass attempt (7.61) and 11th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.28). Green Bay’s starting quarterback has done an excellent job of navigating injuries along his offensive line and to wide receiver Jayden Reed.
He’s also needed to do the heavy lifting with Josh Jacobs on the NFL Commissioner Exempt List. Green Bay ranks fourth in pass rate over expected (7.7% PROE) this season. The Packers are favored, but they lack the ability to run the ball well enough to lean on it to salt the game away.
Green Bay ranks dead last in expected points added (EPA) per rush. In addition, the Cowboys have a high-powered offense, which should force the Packers to keep their foot on the accelerator if they’re leading.
If the Packers are trailing, they’ll need to air it out to catch up, and they’ll speed things up. Green Bay is playing at the NFL’s fastest pace when trailing this year.
Love’s season average for passing yards falls short of 300 yards, but his median is 312 passing yards because he’s passed for 145, 197, 312, 367 and 387. He has an ideal matchup for tapping into his ceiling.
The Cowboys have allowed the highest adjusted net yards per pass attempt (9.2) this year. The gap between Dallas and the third-highest mark is larger than between the third-highest and the 11th-highest mark. Love is tailor-made to light them up for explosive passing plays and should make good on a bet on his alt line of 300-plus passing yards.
Christian Watson is a boom-or-bust wideout, clearing 100 receiving yards twice this season.
Getty ImagesChristian Watson (Green Bay Packers - WR)
If Love lights up the Cowboys, Christian Watson is likely to be on the receiving end of some big receptions. Among 70 wide receivers with at least 100 routes run this year, Watson is 23rd in target share (20.0%), tied for 18th in targets per route run (0.24), 31st in first-read rate (23.2%), 21st in air yard share (33.3%), 15th in receptions per game (5.2), seventh in receiving yards per game (94.8), third in yards per route run (3.10), third in yards per target (12.81) and fifth in yards per reception (18.23).
Like Love, Watson has been a boom-or-bust player. The 27-year-old wide receiver has recorded 147, 41, 96, 47 and 143 receiving yards in five games this season. He’s reached triple-digit receiving yards in two of the three games in which Love surpassed 300 passing yards.
Also like Love, Watson has a matchup he’s tailor-made for. The Cowboys have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game (162.4) and the sixth-most yards per target (9.67) to wide receivers this season.
Watson is in an eruption spot on Sunday Night Football this week and has a decent shot to deliver a winning bet for anyone who wagers on his +209 odds for 100-plus receiving yards.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com