NFL TNF Week 4 Best Bets: Same-Game Parlay For Steelers At Browns
· Yahoo Sports
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - JANUARY 12: Aaron Rodgers #8 of the Pittsburgh Steelers looks to pass against the Houston Texans in the first quarter of an NFL wild card playoff game at Acrisure Stadium on January 12, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesThe Steelers and Browns have both begun their seasons with 2-1 records, and Cleveland’s winning mark is particularly a surprise after rookie head coach Todd Monken’s club approached his first season at the helm with dim prospects.
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The Browns surged back after an unsightly Week 1 loss to the Jaguars to record consecutive victories against the Buccaneers and Panthers, two NFC South teams that profiled as preseason favorites to take their division crown.
With both Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers looking comfortable leading their respective offenses and these two teams enjoying a bit less familiarity with the other than usual thanks to new head coaches, we take a look at a three-leg same-game parlay to consider for the AFC North showdown.
Steelers at Browns Week 4 Same-Game Parlay (odds listed current at time of publish)
- Steelers Over Alt. Total 16.5 Points (-240)
- Jaylen Warren Alt. 50+ Rushing Yards (-420)
- Quinshon Judkins Alt. 40+ Rushing Yards (-310)
Odds: +144 on FanDuel Sportsbook
Leg 1: Steelers Over Alt. Total 16.5 Points
The Steelers’ offense has been a little bit of everything over the first three games of the season, making them one of the trickier units to prognosticate early on.
Week 1 was its so-so game, as Pittsburgh produced just 13 points on that side of the ball in a 20-13 win over the Falcons and netted a modest 264 total yards and 15 first downs. An argument could be made there wasn’t a need for more aggressiveness, given the defense seemingly had the game well in hand throughout most of the day while facing Cooper Rush at quarterback.
Week 2 was unquestionably the ugly. The Steelers looked lost on the road against the Patriots in a 20-3 loss, one in which they mustered only 235 total yards and a minuscule 3.5 yards per play. However, the Week 3 version encouragingly bore no resemblance to that listless unit, as Aaron Rodgers looked like a throwback version of himself running Mike McCarthy’s offense in Green Bay while throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-27 win over Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
What a Week 4 road matchup in a tough environment against a division foe on a short week will bring is difficult to predict. However, we’ll focus on an Alt. team point total of just 16.5, a figure Rodgers, who should be fully reacclimated to McCarthy’s system at this point, is very capable of achieving against a Cleveland defense that’s surrendered 23.7 points per game thus far.
The Steelers are have an implied team total of 20.5 points as of Wednesday night, so bringing that figure down by more than a field goal is a reasonable first leg.
Leg 2: Jaylen Warren Alt. 50+ Rushing Yards
We’ll shift our attention to Warren for our second leg with a prop that dovetails well with our stake in the Steelers scoring at least 17 points.
Warren is set for another game as a true workhorse back, as Rico Dowdle (toe) has already been ruled out for Thursday night. In such a capacity during the Week 3 win over the Bengals, Warren went off for 176 scrimmage yards, including 127 on the ground, and that was with an 87-yard scoring run called back due to an offensive holding call on DK Metcalf.
Warren logged 17 rush attempts in that game, and considering Watson and his weapons pose less of a threat than the Bengals, we could very well see the versatile running back shouldering even more of the load on the ground in a run-centric game plan. Watson’s conventional rushing yardage prop is all the way up at 73.5, so we’re giving ourselves plenty of breathing room by bringing it down to 50.
Warren recorded 52 rushing yards or more on nine occasions last season, and he did so with carry totals of 18 or fewer in each of those contests. The Browns have opened the season allowing 4.7 yards per carry to running backs, so this prop should be well within Warren’s reach.
Leg 3: Quinshon Judkins Alt. 40+ Rushing Yards
We’ll turn to the other side of the matchup for the final leg of the parlay and focus on Warren’s opposite number in Judkins, who’s coming off his best game of the season in the Browns’ Week 3 upset victory over the Panthers.
Judkins took advantage of a soft Carolina front to gain 70 yards on 18 carries, his best total of the season by far. The hard-charging second-year back might well be ready to utilize the performance as a launching pad for the type of production that was expected of him coming into 2026.
Judkins cashed the 40+ rushing yards prop on nine occasions last season, and he’s now facing a Steelers team that’s allowed 4.3 yards per carry to running backs over the first three games of the season. Judkins remains in clear control of the top role in the Browns’ ground attack as well, as change-of-pace back Raheim Sanders is his only competition for targets.
The Browns have run the ball at only a 44.9% clip thus far, but game script hasn’t always cooperated with them. That could change for a large swath of Thursday’s game, considering there is a tight 2.5-point spread and modest projected total of 38.5 points. Game script should therefore remain favorable for the run, and at least 40 rushing yards should therefore be well within Judkins’ reach.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com