Fuel shock: October prices set to smash South African records
· The South African
South Africa’s motorists could be facing another brutal fuel price increase in October, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) figures pointing to potential record prices for both petrol and diesel.
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The latest data shows that fuel is already significantly under-recovered, meaning motorists could be hit with substantial increases if current international oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate remain at similar levels for the rest of September.
Petrol could approach R29 a litre
According to the latest CEF figures, petrol is currently under-recovered by R1.88 per litre for 93 octane and R2.01 per litre for 95 octane.
If those increases were carried through in full, the indicative prices would climb sharply.
That would push the price of 93 petrol towards R28.64 per litre (inland), surpassing the June 2026 record of R28.06 per litre.
Diesel drivers also face increases
Diesel motorists are facing an equally worrying outlook.
The latest CEF data shows an under-recovery of R1.66 per litre for 0.05% sulphur diesel and R1.98 per litre for 0.005% sulphur diesel.
If sustained, the increases would push the wholesale price of 0.05% diesel towards R30.75 per litre (inland), while 0.005% diesel could reach around R32.02 per litre (inland).
The latter would surpass the previous May 2026 peak of R31.88 per litre.
The latest projections are therefore particularly concerning for the transport and logistics sectors, where diesel is a major operating cost.
Illuminating paraffin also under pressure
Households relying on illuminating paraffin could also face higher costs.
The current indication points to an increase of approximately R2.06 per litre.
Any significant increase in the cost of fuel is likely to have consequences beyond the petrol station, as higher transport and logistics costs can feed through into the prices of food and other goods.
Oil prices remain the key driver
The deteriorating fuel outlook comes amid continued volatility in international energy markets.
Brent crude has been approaching $100 a barrel, following renewed tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to energy infrastructure.
Global demand has also added pressure, with increased buying from China, the world’s largest oil importer.
South Africa remains particularly vulnerable to movements in global oil prices because the country imports most of the crude oil it processes, while fuel prices are also heavily influenced by the rand-dollar exchange rate.
FuelIncreasePetrol 93R1.88/litrePetrol 95R2.01/litreDiesel 0.05%R1.66/litreDiesel 0.005%R1.98/litreIlluminating paraffinR2.06/litreAll of the new prices take effect from Wednesday, 7 October, and will remain in place until the next monthly adjustment.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices.
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products.
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $99.79 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.00/$.