ESPN Makes Shocking Myles Garrett Sacks Prediction for 2026

· Yahoo Sports

Myles Garrett is coming off a historic season, yet a new ESPN projection for the Los Angeles Rams star has produced one of the more surprising predictions ahead of 2026. The elite pass rusher is forecast to finish well below the sack total that established him as the NFL’s most dominant quarterback hunter last season.

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Garrett recorded 23 sacks in 2025, setting the league’s single-season record and delivering the kind of campaign few defensive players can match. His performance placed him at the center of the NFL’s defensive conversation, making his projected total for the upcoming season particularly difficult to overlook.

Sep 7, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) is introduced before a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-Imagn Images

The statistical forecast has Garrett finishing fifth among the league’s pass rushers with a projected average of 10.1 sacks. Four players are expected to finish ahead of him, including Aidan Hutchinson, Micah Parsons, Will Anderson Jr. and Nik Bonitto, despite Garrett entering the season as the reigning record holder.

Several factors contributed to the lower projection. Garrett is now 30 years old, while the Rams relied on one of the NFL’s lowest blitz rates last season, reducing some of the opportunities that can create favorable one-on-one matchups for edge rushers.

ESPN’s NFL Analysis Predicts Los Angeles Rams Star Myles Garrett’s 2026 Sacks Production

Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) walks on to the field after a timeout in the first quarter of the NFL Week 18 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium in Downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Garrett’s production isn’t projected to be the best in the league ahead of the new season. This is detailed more in an analysis by Seth Walder for ESPN.

Projected mean 2026 sack total: 10.1
2025 sack total: 23

Yes, I’m as surprised as you are that Garrett is not No. 1 on this list. Even though I know how the model works, I still thought the NFL-record 23 sacks from last season would be enough to put him over the top. Not quite, it turns out!

There are three primary factors working against Garrett:

  • 1. He is 30 years old
  • 2. The Rams blitzed only 19% of the time last season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL
  • 3. Los Angeles faces a quarterback slate that takes sacks less frequently than average

Los Angeles also faces a schedule featuring quarterbacks who have historically taken sacks at a lower-than-average rate. Those circumstances may affect a mathematical model, but they do not necessarily account for the disruption Garrett can create even when he is not finishing plays with sacks.

The prediction will give Garrett another opportunity to prove projections wrong after a season that already placed him in NFL history. If the Rams star approaches his recent production again, a forecast of 10.1 sacks could look remarkably conservative by the end of the 2026 campaign.

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