September has a dark anniversary in South Africa’s weather history (video)
· The South African
There’s a date on South Africa’s weather calendar that doesn’t get talked about nearly as often as it should: 25 to 29 September.
Almost 40 years ago, that exact window produced the deadliest natural disaster in South African history.
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What actually happened in 1987?
Between 25 and 29 September 1987, a cut-off low pressure system stalled over the then Natal province, dumping as much as 900mm of rain in five days, with Mtunzini alone recording 801mm over three days.
The floods killed 506 people, the highest death toll from any natural disaster ever recorded in South Africa, and caused an estimated $500 million in damage.
Why this year’s anniversary feels different
This year, that same September window arrives while South Africa is bracing for a strengthening El Niño, one the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now gives a real chance of becoming the strongest event ever recorded since 1950.
El Niño and the cut-off low systems behind disasters like 1987 aren’t the same weather pattern, cut-off lows can and do occur regardless of El Niño or La Niña conditions, but the coincidence of timing is enough to make this year’s anniversary land differently than most.
What this actually means
To be clear: nothing currently forecast points to a repeat of 1987 specifically.
Cut-off lows are notoriously difficult to predict more than a few days out, and no credible source has linked this year’s El Niño directly to a heightened cut-off low risk this September.
What this anniversary does offer is a genuine reminder of how quickly South African weather can turn severe, and why SAWS’s warnings, even the routine-seeming ones, are worth taking seriously.
It’s genuinely sobering realising the worst weather disaster in our country’s history happened in the exact week we’re heading into right now, almost forty years to the day.
Our thoughts go out to everyone who lived through it, lost loved ones, or still carry the memory of that week with them.
Did you know 1987’s floods were South Africa’s deadliest weather disaster, or is this the first you’re hearing about it?
Let us know in the comments below, Mzansi …