Can Indiana football go perfect again? Schedule predictions, toughest games, matchups
· Yahoo Sports
BLOOMINGTON — How do you follow perfection?
That is Curt Cignetti’s task in 2026. So much of Indiana’s season last year became historic, at both the individual and program-wide levels, that it’s hard to even fathom what comes next. Unless, of course, you’re Cignetti, who declared just days after winning IU football’s first national championship that he was turning the page to “Chapter 3.”
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What will that look like? Difficult tests once again await his team both at home and on the road. As does the opportunity for a third straight College Football Playoff appearance, and the chance to defend Indiana’s Big Ten (and perhaps national) title(s).
With that in mind, we’re going to pick all 12 games on Indiana’s regular-season schedule. Variance and unknowns stopped us from going any further, but first through methodology and then on a game-by-game basis, let’s lay out our predictions for the Hoosiers in 2026.
Five factors I'm considering
Picking each of these games started with these five considerations applied to each matchup.
- Line of scrimmage play: Who enjoys more advantages, on both sides of the ball, at the line of scrimmage.
- Quarterback play: Which team has the better quarterback and support around him.
- Defensive control: Ties into LOS play. Which team has a better chance of changing games defensively.
- Coaching advantage: Pretty obvious.
- Homefield advantage: Very obvious.
Weighing those five factors led me to basic wins and losses. Final scores are a bit more of a guess, but they’re informed by what we’ve seen Indiana do in Cignetti’s first two seasons in Bloomington. So, without further preamble, let’s pick some games:
Indiana football vs North Texas prediction
Indiana has started slowly in each of its last two openers. In both 2024 and 2025, Week 1 felt like an exercise in shaking off rust, with final scores to show for it.
Unlike last year against Old Dominion, though, Indiana enters Week 1 by far the more settled team. North Texas has a new coach and a new quarterback, and some questions on defense. Given the talent disparity, that’s a dangerous combination.
Five factors: Indiana 5, North Texas 0.
Final score: Indiana 41, North Texas 3.
Indiana football vs Howard prediction
The last two FCS opponents to visit Memorial Stadium lost by a combined score of 150-3. Don’t overthink this.
Five factors: Indiana 5, Howard 0.
Final score: Indiana 59, Howard 0.
Indiana football vs Western Kentucky prediction
Here’s an interesting one. Western Kentucky doesn’t necessarily hold on any of those five factors. But the Hilltoppers have become a regular winner under Tyson Helton at the Group of Six level.
They also have their second-leading passer back from last season, Rodney Tisdale Jr., though how that quarterback room shapes up remains to be seen. In seven years in Bowling Green, Helton’s only losing season remains the COVID-hit 2020 campaign. If he got IU earlier in the schedule this might feel a little bit more like Old Dominion a year ago. But Cignetti’s teams are usually hitting their stride by Week 3, and that will be too much for the ‘Toppers.
Five factors: Indiana 5, Western Kentucky 0.
Final score: Indiana 45, Western Kentucky 13.
Indiana football vs Northwestern prediction
The Wildcats’ offense is an unknown, with Chip Kelly at the controls and IU’s old friend, Aidan Chiles, behind center. Chiles has given Indiana some trouble in the past: He’s 43 of 57 passing against the Hoosiers in the last two seasons, with 436 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.
All but a handful of those yards, though, came on a small number of drives near the start of games that eventually unfolded into easy Indiana wins. This is also a Friday night Big Ten opener following a national championship season. Northwestern has some line-of-scrimmage talent on defense, but not enough.
Five factors: Indiana 5, Northwestern 0.
Final score: Indiana 38, Northwestern 13.
Indiana football at Rutgers prediction
October sees Indiana on the road three times in four games, with the only home date in that stretch against Ohio State. Here is the Hoosiers’ proving ground, for better or worse.
That starts at Rutgers, where the Scarlet Knights have to replace Athan Kaliakmanis behind center. KJ Duff might be one of the best receivers in the Big Ten. Who’s trying to get him the ball remains an open question at time of writing. Whoever it is, this is one of those matchups that might be defined by the dominance of Indiana’s defense. Away from home, stifling defense wins games, something IU proved repeatedly last year and will again in Piscataway.
Five factors: Indiana 4, Rutgers 1.
Final score: Indiana 42, Rutgers 13.
Indiana football at Nebraska prediction
An interesting test just before Ohio State comes to town, and the kind of game that can sneak up on a team. Nebraska is probably a step behind Indiana in most key areas, but only a step, and the gameday atmosphere in Memorial Stadium can be a game changer. And, unlike in the Hoosiers’ 2019 trip to Lincoln, Nebraska won’t take IU lightly.
Cignetti’s teams aren’t prone to trap games. We’re not labeling this as that. Again, Indiana will win with defense here, but will have to effort for a while to do it, with the Cornhuskers’ offense a little bit more settled and dangerous than the last time these two teams met.
Five factors: Indiana 4, Nebraska 1.
Final score: Indiana 34, Nebraska 14.
Indiana football vs Ohio State prediction
The big one, then.
No game is circled so brightly on the Big Ten calendar to start the season. Ohio State enters the year the conference favorite, and the No. 1 team in the country. Indiana has designs on upsetting the Buckeyes again, a win that would go a long way toward paving the Hoosiers’ road back to the conference title game.
Splitting the matchups here is so difficult. Julian Sayin might be the best quarterback in the country. This is probably the best defensive line he’ll face. Can Arthur Smith build for the Buckeyes a power run game like the ones he built his career on in the NFL? Can Josh Hoover manage against Matt Patricia’s defense?
If results hold serve up to this point — Ohio State has Texas and Iowa both on the road in the first six weeks of the season — we’ll be asking those questions all the way up to kickoff. If coaching is a wash, then this comes down to defense and home-field advantage. This might be the most anticipated game Memorial Stadium has hosted since 1967. Right now, we’re picking Indiana to win it.
Five factors: Indiana 2.5, Ohio State 2.5.
Final score: Indiana 24, Ohio State 20.
Indiana football at Michigan prediction
Calling this a trap game would do Michigan a disservice. The Wolverines won nine games last season and should be a tougher out this year. Michigan’s talent level, relative to recent seasons, remains a bit murky. But Kyle Whittingham teams are rarely caught unprepared — he finished his Utah tenure 11-6 both in bowl games, and also against rival BYU.
Indiana endured difficult tests in 2025, as well. But it was perhaps not appreciated fully the extent to which the schedule allowed the Hoosiers to take those tests at their own pace: a bye after Iowa, the gap between Oregon and Penn State, three weeks to charge up for the Big Ten title game.
This year, there are gauntlets in need of running, none more so than three road games in four, the last two being Ohio State and Michigan on the road. Even with some matchup advantages, this one gets the better of Indiana.
Five factors: Indiana 3, Michigan 2.
Final score: Michigan 27, Indiana 24.
Indiana football vs Minnesota (homecoming)
Cignetti was right to praise P.J. Fleck’s consistency across the last several years at Minnesota, but this one will be a bridge too far for the Gophers.
Minnesota has some disruptiveness to contend with defensively, and starter Drake Lindsey gives Fleck experience at quarterback. In Bloomington on Halloween night, that won’t be enough. IU might not hold a big advantage in all five factors, but there’s enough of a gap for it to count.
Five factors: Indiana 5, Minnesota 0.
Final score: Indiana 42, Minnesota 17.
Indiana football vs Southern Cal prediction
The idle week comes late for Indiana this fall, but also at a good time. After what could be a bruising October, a week off before the stretch run will be a welcome sight.
Exactly how much more prepared for the physical demands of the Big Ten the Trojans have become in a year should be proven out by games against Oregon, Washington, Penn State and Ohio State before USC gets to Bloomington. Lincoln Riley’s team also comes into this matchup after an idle week, and if the Hoosiers are anymore beaten up than projected here, Southern Cal could present problems.
We'll give USC the nod on quarterback play, out of sheer respect for what Jayden Maiava has proven in the league. Our bet is IU still has too much, even if USC scores some points.
Five factors: Indiana 4, USC 1.
Final score: Indiana 38, USC 28.
Indiana football at Washington prediction
This is maybe the trickiest game to pick out of the lot because of who it is, where it is and when it is. Washington won nine games last season, and Year 3 is when Jedd Fisch really turned a corner at Arizona, before coming to Seattle. He’s also got Demond Williams Jr., and if there’s one great equalizer against an elite defense in college football, it’s a true dual-threat quarterback.
Husky Stadium, in addition to being one of the most picturesque venues in the sport, is also among the most underrated. On a cold night in November, if Washington — which doesn’t have the toughest conference slate — has anything riding on the outcome here, Indiana will face a road environment as difficult as any on its schedule. Still, IU’s defensive front is elite and, still relatively fresh from the bye, it will carry the day.
Five factors: Indiana 3.5, Washington 1.5.
Final score: Indiana 34, Washington 24.
IU football vs Purdue prediction
Purdue is the third-lowest rated FBS team (Howard doesn’t appear) on Indiana’s schedule, per preseason SP+, and it’s hard to find areas where the gap has meaningfully closed between these two rivals since last season.
Are we prepared to pick another 56-3 blowout? Perhaps. Two years ago, a less-proven Indiana team won by an even greater margin in Bloomington. This one might be a little bit more battle-worn, given its backloaded schedule, so if the Hoosiers are allowed to soft pedal at all in this game, they might take the opportunity. The Bucket isn’t leaving Bloomington though.
Five factors: Indiana 5, Purdue 0.
Final score: Indiana 52, Purdue 7.
Summing up
Final prediction: 11-1, 8-1.
With respect to Nebraska in Lincoln, there are two crucial turns in IU’s schedule: Ohio State to Michigan, and USC to Washington.
One comes at the end of a difficult stretch, the other following the Hoosiers’ idle week. How that helps or doesn’t we’ll only know with time. But unlike last season, when the Hoosiers got a break between Iowa and Oregon, then breathing room either side of the trip to Penn State, Indiana has to navigate these two blocks in back-to-back weeks.
That’s why it’s easier to see this prediction sliding to 10-2 than it is to see it bumping to 12-0. You could talk me into flipping the Michigan result, but you could also talk me into flipping the Ohio State or Washington results (and USC slightly less so). Indiana’s projected strength defensively, coupled to the Curt Cignetti/Mike Shanahan offensive track record, gives the Hoosiers an awful lot of benefit of the doubt.
Which is why I’ll push the boat out slightly further and suggest that 11-1 — in particular with a win over Ohio State — gets IU back to Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game.
One last prediction: Indiana will face old friends Dante Moore and Oregon when the Hoosiers defend their conference title.
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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Can Indiana football go perfect again? Schedule predictions, toughest games, matchups
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