Why Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton are projected to be 2026-27 NBA Eastern Conference's dark horse

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Why Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton are projected to be 2026-27 NBA Eastern Conference's dark horse originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The Eastern Conference is stacked for the 2026-27 NBA season; it would be a lie to say otherwise. About 12 teams have a legitimate chance of making the postseason, given their roster makeup and the aspirations they have made explicit. Obviously, some teams are already solidified as top contenders because of offseason moves and schematic changes. However, they should all be wary of one squad - the Indiana Pacers. Even ESPN knows this team, led by Coach Rick Carlisle and Tyrese Haliburton, is the league's definitive dark horse.

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Pacers led by Haliburton and Coach Carlisle projected by ESPN to be the NBA's dark horse

Plenty of teams have what it takes to have a 50-win record and go deep in the postseason. Some have their strengths on paper while others have already proven themselves in past seasons. The Pacers are a happy mix of both. While they may have lost a crucial piece during their 2024-25 NBA Finals run in Bennedict Mathurin, they are bringing in great talents to complement Coach Rick Carlisle's coaching style and Tyrese Haliburton's way of playing: Kelly Oubre Jr, Ivica Zubac, and Larry Nance Jr.

Because of their previous experience making it far in the NBA Playoffs, along with a better roster, ESPN projects the Pacers as the likely dark horse in the league. They asked: which teams are going to take a major leap? It came as no surprise that the former Eastern Conference champions led the list.

T-1. Indiana Pacers46 pointsT-1. Utah Jazz46 points3. Washington Wizards20 pointsT-4. Dallas Mavericks15 pointsT-4. Philadelphia 76ers15 points6. Atlanta Hawks14 pointsT-7. Charlotte Hornets10 pointsT-7. Portland Trail Blazers10 points

The Pacers' roster isn't as glamorous as the Philadelphia 76ers', who just got a stacked starting five with the additions of LeBron James and Jaylen Brown; that's true. But the reasons Coach Carlisle and Haliburton succeeded in 2025 never revolved around top-heavy star power. They built a team that can run breaks effectively and has legs for days. Their identity is built on orchestrating fast cuts to the rim, having multiple shot creators who can win games in the clutch, and having each person be a two-way threat to avoid defensive liabilities in their schemes. Their 2024-25 season defensive and offensive four factors show exactly this before they took a gap year due to injuries.

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Pacers' 2024-25 Offensive Four FactorsORTGPaceeFG%TOV%ORB%FT/FGA116.599.9.56211.821.3.1909th in the NBA7th in the NBA4th in the NBA4th in the NBA29th in the NBA14th in the NBA

Adding in someone like Zubac, who is projected to grab career-high 3.9 offensive rebounds and 12.8 total rebounds Per 36 minutes, means that the Pacers will rank higher in their offensive Achilles heel once that season rolls around. Both Oubre Jr. and Nance Jr. are also known as great cutters in the halfcourt along with being astounding runners on the fast break. All three are perfect fits with Haliburton running the offense.

Defensively, the Pacers are also a solid squad due to guys like Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard. If Coach Carlisle manages to emulate the same rotations and schemes that they had during their NBA Finals run, Indiana would be in good hands.

Pacers' 2024-25 Defensive Four FactorsDRTGMOVeFG%TOV%DRB%FT/FGA114.32.23.54613.174.5.19013th in the NBA12th in the NBA19th in the NBA12th in the NBA20th in the NBA16th in the NBA

Obviously, Coach Carlisle now has a more versatile defensive squad despite losing Myles Turner after their NBA Finals run. The same guys who can run circles on offense also have a similar ability to navigate screens properly, decipher complicated offensive schemes by the opponents, and chase down any ball handler who finds a gap in their traps. Veteran acumen, along with big bodies to withstand offensive pressure, usually determines whether a team can stay organized in setting up zones and man-to-man defenses effectively. Haliburton has that luxury entering the 2026-27 season. The Pacers have an average age of 27.2 years, average height of 6'6", and average weight of 212.4. Each player has the physical prowess to avoid being bullied by opponents.

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With all of that said, just how far does ESPN think the Pacers will go? Despite being named the clear dark horse of the NBA and Eastern Conference, pundits seem to think this team, just two seasons removed from its Finals run, will have to fight through the Play-In Tournament.

6. Atlanta Hawks47-357. Miami Heat47-358. Toronto Raptors45-379. Indiana Pacers44-3810. Orlando Magic44-38

This isn't the first time the Pacers, led by Haliburton and Coach Carlisle, have been doubted. Many analysts ruled them as second-round exits at best when they reached the NBA Finals. If ESPN's projected record holds, it also wouldn't be the first time a team that clawed its way up from the Play-In Tournament claimed the Eastern Conference Finals trophy. The Miami Heat had a 44-win record back in 2023 before falling short to the Nuggets in Game 5.

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Odds have always been stacked against everyone on this Pacers squad. Siakam triumphed with the Raptors back in 2019 despite being heavy underdogs against the Golden State Warriors. Haliburton has already been doubted but proved everyone wrong with his clutch shots in 2025 to bring a budding Oklahoma City Thunder squad to seven games. Coach Carlisle was projected to get swept by the Miami Heat with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh; yet, he and Dirk Nowitzki took home that 2011 Larry O'Brien trophy.

The Pacers are dark horses for a reason. No one expects them to do well, but when they do, the NBA will be put on notice.

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