ESPN predicts FSU football's 2026 season
· Yahoo Sports
The Florida State Seminoles are just over a month away from welcoming the New Mexico State Aggies to Doak Campbell Stadium for their first game of the 2026 season. It is a critical year for FSU, which has gone 7-17 over the past two seasons, falling well short of its standards.
Head coach Mike Norvell is back, but enters the season on the hot seat and will be looking to cool it off with a strong start. He will have a chance to pick up two quality wins early, with FSU playing the SMU Mustangs and Alabama Crimson Tide in the first three weeks of the season.
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The Seminoles are set to play one of the toughest schedules in the ACC, giving them a chance to make a statement or suffer another tough season. Here are ESPN's initial predictions for FSU's 2026 season. ESPN runs 20,000 simulations for each game, and the chances are updated after each week.
Aug. 29: vs New Mexico State Aggies
- Projected Winner: FSU
- FSU's Win Probability: 97.1%
- Running Record: 1-0
Sept. 7: vs SMU Mustangs
- Projected Winner: SMU
- FSU's Win Probability: 48.5%
- Running Record: 1-1
Sept. 19: at Alabama Crimson Tide
- Projected Winner: Alabama
- FSU's Win Probability: 18.4%
- Running Record: 1-2
Sept. 26: vs Central Arkansas Bears
- Projected Winner: FSU
- FSU's Win Probability: 98.6%
- Running Record: 2-2
Oct. 3: vs Virginia Cavaliers
- Projected Winner: FSU
- FSU's Win Probability: 61.8%
- Running Record: 3-2
Oct. 9: at Louisville Cardinals
- Projected Winner: Louisville
- FSU's Win Probability: 42.3%
- Running Record: 3-3
Oct. 17: at Miami Hurricanes
- Projected Winner: Miami
- FSU's Win Probability: 12.3%
- Running Record: 3-4
Oct. 31: vs Clemson Tigers
- Projected Winner: Clemson
- FSU's Win Probability: 47.4%
- Running Record: 3-5
Nov. 7: at Boston College Eagles
- Projected Winner: FSU
- FSU's Win Probability: 75.2%
- Running Record: 4-5
Nov. 13: at Pittsburgh Panthers
- Projected Winner: Pittsburgh
- FSU's Win Probability: 46.8%
- Running Record: 4-6
Nov. 21: vs NC State Wolfpack
- Projected Winner: FSU
- FSU's Win Probability: 72.7%
- Running Record: 5-6
Nov. 27: vs Florida Gators
- Projected Winner: Florida
- FSU's Win Probability: 42.9%
- Running Record: 5-7
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN predicts FSU football's 2026 season