Why the Bills' offensive X-factor may not be a newcomer
· Yahoo Sports
This is the fourth in a 10-part series of questions facing the Buffalo Bills as they head into training camp at St. John Fisher University.
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The two most important moves the Buffalo Bills made in the offseason regarding their prolific offense were re-signing center Connor McGovern and acquiring wide receiver DJ Moore in a trade from the Chicago Bears.
But if the Bills can somehow get a full, healthy and productive season from fourth-year tight end Dalton Kincaid, that might end up being the biggest needle mover for Josh Allen.
"It’s probably the best I’ve felt in my career at this point in the year," Kincaid said near the end of the offseason program in June. "Not having those thoughts of the knee, especially last year. I feel really good and I’m not even thinking about it out there."
Great, but that’s touch football in the spring with no pads on. The Bills can only hope Kincaid feels that way throughout the 2026 season because if he can give them more than the 38% of snaps he was on the field for last year, that would be a hugely positive development.
Why the Bills remain convinced Dalton Kincaid can be a difference-maker
Shortly after head coach Sean McDermott was fired and Joe Brady was promoted to replace him, Brandon Beane was asked if he expected to give Kincaid the fifth-year option on his original rookie contract. That decision did not have to be made for another three months, but Beane had already made the call to do it.
Asked why he would offer it given Kincaid’s injury history, Beane was all too happy to reel off some statistics that showed how valuable Kincaid is to the offense. In the games Kincaid played last season, the Bills were 11-3 counting the postseason and averaged 30.1 points; they were 2-3 in the games he missed and averaged 23.0 points.
“So yes, I’m turning the fifth-year option in,” Beane said.
The 2023 first-round draft pick set a Bills’ record for receptions by a tight end in his first season with 73 which was also the fourth-highest total for a rookie tight end in NFL history. But he wasn’t quite as productive in the first half of 2024 when he had 32 catches for 332 yards and two TDs in the first nine games, and then came his health issues.
He sprained his knee in Week 10 at Indianapolis and missed the next three games (plus he sat out the meaningless season finale) and over his last six games counting the postseason he managed just 16 catches for 160 yards and no TDs.
Last year he started strong with 20 receptions for 287 yards and three TDs in the first five games including a career-high 108 yards against the Patriots, but then oblique and hamstring injuries bit him, followed by a late-season aggravation of the knee injury and between missing five games and playing limited snap counts in others, he finished with just 39 receptions for 571 yards and five TDs.
The snap management paid off in the postseason as Kincaid played two strong games against the Jaguars and Broncos, but when the season ended, in consultation with the Bills’ medical staff, he elected not to have surgery on his ailing knee, banking on rest and then rehab to get it back into shape. It felt like a curious decision, but Beane was on board with the approach.
“It could be one of those things, alright, you don’t do surgery this year, and let’s say it flares up or gets worse, then maybe next year the doc’s like, ‘All right, we tried non-surgery, you kind of ran into some of the same things, maybe we should try surgery now,’” Beane said. “You never want to do surgery unless you can say that’s what’s needed. Docs like to do surgery, so I respect them saying that’s not what we’re recommending here.”
Why a healthy Kincaid could elevate the Bills offense
Having served as offensive coordinator since the middle of 2023, Brady knows how valuable a healthy Kincaid can be.
“I just want the pads to come on and football season to start because he’s had such a good offseason,” Brady said. “I’m so excited for where he’s at and his head space. He’s a freak of an athlete and we’re a better offense when he’s out on the field and there’s no denying that.”
Tight end is a strong position group for the Bills because when Kincaid is down, Dawson Knox - a four-year starter before Kincaid arrived - has been a solid performer who helps in the passing game and is a better run blocker than Kincaid. And Buffalo’s 2025 fifth-round pick Jackson Hawes immediately became one of the best run-blocking tight ends in the league as a rookie, and he also showed glimpses of his ability to catch the ball.
It is one of the best three-man groups in the league, but only if Kincaid is on the field and playing the way the Bills thought he would when they traded up two spots in 2023 to make sure they could draft him.
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for more than four decades including 37 years as the full-time beat writer/columnist for the D&C. He has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at [email protected], and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Why the Bills' offensive X-factor may not be a newcomer