You’re Nuts, Over/Under Edition: Will Ohio State freshmen combine to score over 30.5 points per game?
· Yahoo Sports
Welcome back to another rousing and thought-provoking edition of “You’re Nuts” where our basketball writers pick a hoops-related or hoops-adjacent topic, defend their respective sides, and then shake hands with their dignity still intact.
There was not a ton of Ohio State basketball news this past week, but the media was allowed in to practice on Tuesday afternoon. Here are a few quick observations from the 30-minute window of practice media was able to watch:
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- Jimmie Williams looks like a guy whose floor is quality 6th man and ceiling could be All-Big Ten Honorable Mention
- Josh Ojianwuna looks like he’s in great shape and appears to be moving without any pain or hesitation when cutting
- Justin Pippen has a little sh*t to him — in a good way. He’s not afraid to mix it up, talk some talk and go nose-to-nose with anyone, especially when guarding on the ball.
- Alex Smith and Curtis Givens have shot the ball very well and very consistently in practice.
Last week, Connor and Justin debated why Ohio State will or won’t have three players drafted next year in the 2027 NBA Draft.
Justin said it will not happen, because the odds of John Mobley Jr. or Amare Bynum being taken is not super high next year — one may get drafted, but not both. Connor said yes, all three of Anthony Thompson, Bynum, and Mobley will get drafted next summer.
This week, the guys are looking at Ohio State’s four freshmen and predicting how productive the group will be together. With the summer editions of Vuk Lazarevic and LJ Smith (joining Thompson and Smith), Ohio State now has a four-man freshman class. They’re going to play varying amounts and have different levels of impact on the 2026-27 team.
For this exercise, we’re setting an over/under of 30.5 points per game between the four of them. One of us will argue why the freshmen will go over that, and the other will argue why they will go under that.
This week’s question: Will Ohio State freshmen combine to score over or under 30.5 points per game?
Connor: OverAnthony Thompson: 17.5 PPG
LJ Smith: 8.0 PPG
Alex Smith: 4.5 PPG
Vuk Lazarevic: 1.0 PPG
Since there are probably quite a few people who are expecting a lot from Anthony Thompson, I don’t think I’m an outlier by penciling him down for 17 or 18 points per game.
Thompson’s got an effortless three-point shot that’s impossible to block and nearly impossible to contest, dunks the ball without breaking a sweat, and has the wingspan to be a really good rebounder. Most people think he’s going to be really good in his only college season.
The pair of Smiths may be where I’m a little more confident than some others. Both Alex and LJ have looked really good in practice, and I think both of them are going to contribute to this team more than we previously expected.
The Ohio State coaching staff has described LJ Smith as “fearless” and they think he’s going to have some really impactful games this year despite only being 17 years old. I haven’t seen enough to know if he can knock down mid-range shots, but he’s super shifty and gets to the basket quickly, and can also shoot the three-ball at a high level.
Alex Smith has looked more and more comfortable as the summer has progressed, and we saw him hit at least four or five three-pointers on Tuesday afternoon at practice. He’s gotten much bigger over the past year, and is now listed at 6-foot-9 and 215 pounds on Ohio State’s team website.
I think there will be several games where Smith doesn’t get in, but I also think there will be a few games where he puts up double-digit points, especially in the non-conference part of the schedule.
I don’t expect Lazarevic to play very much this season, so for now he is mostly an afterthought. There’s basically no such thing as a “redshirt” anymore, so he’ll get the chance to check into a few games, but I don’t think he will have a meaningful impact as a freshman.
Justin: UnderI want to start by saying I am incredibly high on this class, and I think all of them will be productive players at some point in their career. I just don’t think it will be their freshman season, except for Anthony Thompson.
Starting with Thompson, I think he will average somewhere between 13 and 16 points per game. He is an elite scorer, but John Mobley, Amare Bynum, Justin Pippen, and Jimmie Williams will all get their buckets as well, so I don’t think Thompson will get in the 20s with points per game.
I like Alex Smith and Vuk Lazarevic and think they will provide a lot down the line, but their roles will be limited this season, and I think they will only average 4 to 6 points per game combined.
That leaves LJ Smith. I do think Smith will have a solid season, but for this prompt, he would have to average 10-12 points per game to meet the number set forth, and I think that is a bit high since he got to campus late and it could take him some time to get acclimated, and there are a lot of mouths to feed on offense.
He might have some games with 10-15 points, but his average will be around 6-8 points per game.
In review:
Anthony Thompson: 13-16 points per game
Alex Smith and Vuk Lazarevic: 4-6 points per game
LJ Smith: 6-8 points per game