2026 Chicago Bears Fantasy Preview: Can Caleb continue to cook?
· Yahoo Sports
Visit newssport.cv for more information.
- Points per game: 28.3 (4th)
- Total yards per game: 369.5 (6th)
- Plays per game: 64.8 (2nd)
- Dropbacks per game: 37.8 (11th)
- Dropback EPA per play: 0.122 (9th)
- Designed rush attempts per game: 29.7 (5th)
- Rush EPA per play: 0.007 (6th)
Can Caleb Williams continue to evolve into a game manager with explosive traits?
Ben Johnson's goal when he arrived in Chicago was not to make Caleb Williams a boring check-down machine, the path of many top-end quarterbacks against NFL defenses now dedicated to stopping any and all big plays down the field. The question headed into 2026 is whether Johnson can continue shaping Williams into an elite decision maker, harnessing the raw talent we saw in flashes during Chicago's postseason run last winter.
Passing Game
QB: Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent
WR: Rome Odunze, Zavion Williams
WR: Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker
WR: Kalif Raymond, Scotty Miller
TE: Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet
Williams did get a little more boring in 2025, his first year with Johnson. His deep ball rate dropped slightly, his rate of short-area throws jumped, and most importantly, his pressure to sack rate was slashed from 27 percent in 2025 to a mere 10 percent in 2026. Only Bo Nix and Brock Purdy had lower pressure-to-sack rates. That led to a Bears offense that stayed on schedule and was able to run the ball at a heavy clip, just as Johnson intended.
The Bears in 2026 threw the ball on 51 percent of their plays in neutral game script, the tenth lowest mark in the NFL. Like a lot of teams coached by sharps, the 2025 Bears were under their expected pass rate in every situation except for first and ten. Johnson knew what he had to do if he was going to get the most out of Williams following his uneven, somewhat concerning rookie campaign.
The Bears have reportedly worked relentlessly this offseason in improving Williams' accuracy, which remains a real problem through much of the 2025 season.
- Williams last season was 32nd out of 34 qualifying QBs in completion rate over expected.
- Williams' 73 percent catchable pass rate was among the league's lowest, tied with JJ McCarthy.
- Sixty-one percent of Williams' throws last season were deemed on target, tied with Cam Ward.
The one exception was Williams' downfield looks: He was the league's fifth most accurate passer on deep shots, a big improvement over his 2024 downfield numbers. Hopefully for Rome Odunze and the other Chicago pass catchers, Williams continues this downfield passing improvement and is more selective with his deep shots in 2026. Williams' 2025 touchdowns rate — 4.8 percent, barely above league average — could make him a positive regression candidate for the coming season.
Chicago's passing attack will almost assuredly be led by second-year tight end Colston Loveland. In fact, I think Loveland could be the rare tight end who operates as his team's No. 1 target — a sort of WR1 you can plug into the tight end spot, like Trey McBride in 2025. Loveland over the Bears' final four games of the 2025 season was targeted on an absurd 35 percent of his pass routes (while running 75 percent of the team's routes). He accounted for almost 33 percent of the Bears' passing yardage at a yards per route clip of 2.8.
It was a small sample that (likely) won't hold up over a full season, but Loveland — if he retains something close to that dominant role — will have every shot to be fantasy's top-scoring tight end in 2026. “He’s going to be a weapon for a long time,” head coach Ben Johnson said back in January.
Johnson, meanwhile, has talked up Luther Burden III more breathlessly than the best ball bros. The head coach said the Bears' offensive plan in 2026 would include getting the football to Burden "as often as we possibly can." Johnson said in late May that he's “buying Luther Burden stock right now." Warren Buffett was unavailable for comment.
A second-year leap for Burden could depend on better short-area accuracy from his quarterback. Williams in 2025 ranked 32nd out of 40 qualifying QBs in completion rate over expected on throws between 1-9 yards. That's what we call the Penix Range. It's not a good range in which to be. In fact, it's quite bad. Bears coaches have continued this offseason in their quest to make Williams a slightly less-bad short-area passer.
The departure of DJ Moore to Buffalo should leave the Bears no choice but to give Burden more snaps and routes in 2026 after he posted a meager 44 percent route rate in 2025. Burden, a consistent target commander in college, led Chicago last season with a target per route rate of 25 percent. His first-read target rate of 17 percent is sure to spike this season if Burden can stay healthy. Burden should be treated as a top-24 option with upside to spare, especially in PPR formats.
Something the dishonest and very unfair football media won't tell you about Rome Odunze is that he led the Bears last season in air yards share (35 percent), route rate (79 percent), and first-read target rate (24 percent) in his 14 healthy games.
Odunze struggled through a nagging foot injury that has created a "new normal" for him and ran cold for a second straight season, seeing one of the NFL's lowest catchable target rates (69 percent). Though he'll be a somewhat high-variance boundary option who either does or does not convert his weekly boatload of air yards, Odunze — assuming health — will probably be overlooked in fantasy drafts this summer.
Running Game
RB: D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai
OL (L-R): Ozzy Trapilo, Joe Thuney, Garrett Bradbury, Jonah Jackson, Darnell Wright
Ben Johnson's rushing attack made the spreadsheets go brrr in 2025. It's not much of a surprise considering Johnson's track record from his days as the head of the Lions run-first attack. Only The Rams and their elite run game posted a higher rushing success rate than the Bears in 2025.
The 2025 Bears were run heavy in almost every part of the game, and especially so near the end zone. They happened to be pretty good near the goal line in 2025. Chicago last season had the seventh highest rushing success rate inside the 10, and the fifth best inside the 20.
The Bears totaled 52 green zone carries in 2025, the seventh most in the NFL. This kind of run-first, run-only red zone approach can easily create a top-three fantasy running back — if that back gets all (or most) of the high-value touches near the goal line. That, as you probably know, did not happen last season. D’Andre Swift logged 24 inside-the-10 attempts, tenth most among all running backs, while Kyle Monangai had 19. Both Chicago backs had five inside-the-five opportunities: Swift scored five touchdowns and Monangai had four scores. Johnson's offense should continue giving both backs plenty of scoring chances in 2026.
There's no question as to who is the better Chicago back. It's Swift, and it's not close. Swift last season bettered Monangai in explosive run rate, success rate, and missed tackles forced rate, along with yards per route run and targets per route run. Monangai edged out Swift in yards after contact per rush. But it was Swift who excelled on zone concept rushes, a calling card of the Ben Johnson rushing attack.
Monangai, of course, has lots of contingent value considering he would be the Bears' lead back should Swift miss any time in 2026. He's a solid stash in 12-team leagues who would become a plug-and-play option if Swift were to struggle with injuries.
2026 Chicago Bears Win Total
DraftKings over/under: 9.5
Pick: Over (+100)
I would be stunned if the Bears don't win double digit games in 2026. Though they have the league's toughest schedule — based on opponents' 2025 win-loss records — I think another year of Caleb's development combined with Johnson's willingness to do whatever it takes to matriculate the ball downfield should get the Bears into the 10-12 win range this year.
Caleb landed the Madden cover, after all. What could go wrong?