What to Know About the Abraham Accords as Trump Pushes Mideast Nations to Recognize Israel as Part of Iran Deal
· Time
President Donald Trump appears to be hinging any peace agreement with Iran on Arab nations recognizing Israel.
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In a post on Truth Social on Monday, Trump said he had spoken with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain over the weekend, and that he wanted them to sign onto the Abraham Accords, a historic set of agreements brokered in 2020 that normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab countries. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was reportedly not part of the call.
“After all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords,” Trump posted. “Those Countries discussed are Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates (already a Member!), Qatar, Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain (already a Member!)”
The U.S. President said that most of the countries “should be ready, willing, and able to make this Settlement with Iran a far more Historic Event than it would, otherwise, be,” although certain countries may be excused from signing.
In particular, Trump said Saudi Arabia and Qatar should immediately sign the agreements, “and everybody else should follow suit.”
“If they don’t, they should not be part of this Deal in that it shows bad intention,” he said.
Trump also suggested that even Iran could eventually sign the accords, despite its longstanding adversarial relationship with Israel.
Trump’s appeal is likely to face resistance, however, given that the agreements were widely criticized by many in the Middle East for failing to address historic tensions, including the Palestinian issue. Israel’s bombardment of Gaza and Lebanon, and aggression towards Iran, have only intensified those feelings.
“Trump is basically trying to switch horses mid-race,” William Figueroa, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Groningen, tells TIME. “Having failed to force Iran’s unconditional surrender, he is now trying to sell an equally improbable farce; tying regional peace to a fragile diplomatic agreement that in no way addresses the root of the conflict.”
Here’s what to know about the accords and how they tie into a possible U.S.-Iran peace deal.
What are the Abraham Accords?
Brokered by Trump in September 2020, the Abraham Accords established official diplomatic ties between Israel and several nations. The bilateral agreements were the first formal normalization of Arab-Israeli diplomatic relations in decades.
The U.A.E. and Bahrain were the first to sign on with Israel. Sudan agreed to normalize relations with Israel in October 2020, although formal ratification was delayed by its civil war. Morocco signed onto the accords in December 2020, and Kazakhstan, which has had diplomatic ties with Israel since the 1990s, joined the accords last November.
The agreements were criticized by some countries and observers for undermining the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which laid out prerequisites for formal relations with Israel, including a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied territories, and the establishment of a Palestinian state with a “just settlement” for Palestinian refugees.
How have countries responded?
Pakistan has already said it will not join the accords. The country’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif told Pakistani broadcaster Samaa TV that such an agreement “clashes with our fundamental ideologies.”
Of the countries that Trump has demanded join the accords, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan do not have formal diplomatic relations with Israel. While not part of the Abraham Accords, Egypt normalized relations with Israel in 1979 and Jordan established formal diplomatic ties with Israel in a 1994 peace treaty. Turkey was the first Muslim-majority country to formally recognize Israel in 1949, although their diplomatic relationship has strained and bilateral trade was suspended over Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
So far, no other countries besides Pakistan have publicly responded to Trump’s appeal.
A U.S. official told Axios that the leaders on the call, especially those of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan, appeared stunned by Trump’s demand. “There was silence on the line, and Trump joked and asked if they are still there,” the official said.
Following the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas last October, Trump suggested that Saudi Arabia join the accords. The kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in November, when he met with Trump in Washington, that Saudi Arabia was open to joining the accords contingent upon a “clear path” toward Palestinian sovereignty.
Saudi Arabia’s position has long been that it will only normalize relations with Israel if Israel commits to a “credible, irreversible” path toward establishing a Palestinian state. Israel’s far-right government has said it opposes a two-state solution and Palestinian sovereignty.
“The Accords are seen as politically risky, especially now,” says Figueroa. “They were criticized [years ago] by citizens of the countries signing them that they traded support for the Palestinians for economic growth.”
Notably, Figueroa says, Israel has also not publicly responded to Trump’s suggestion. Israel embraced the accords in 2020, but it has criticized reported progress toward a peace deal with Iran as it insists that Tehran must dismantle its nuclear program. Iran has been reluctant to commit to those demands as it maintains its nuclear program is for civilian purposes. On Sunday, Netanyahu posted on X an A.I.-generated image of himself and Trump standing back to back with the words, “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
“Trump’s efforts to link his current foreign policy disaster to his earlier diplomatic success is his latest attempt to placate the Israeli government, which has been deeply critical of his efforts to strike a peace agreement,” says Figueroa.
How could this affect a deal with Iran?
In his post, Trump said that talks with Iran were “proceeding nicely.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio initially said that an agreement could be reached on Monday, but on Tuesday, as still no agreement was reached, he said it could “take a few days.”
“It is correct to say that we have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues under discussion,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqai said in Tehran on Monday. “But to say that this means the signing of an agreement is imminent—no one can make such a claim.”
The framework agreement—a memorandum of understanding—reportedly includes a 60-day cease-fire extension, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and plans to further discuss Iran’s nuclear program over a 30- to 60-day period. But sticking points remain: American officials have said that the Iranians would have to commit to giving up their enriched uranium stockpile, a point that Israeli officials have also insisted on. Iranian state-linked media, on the other hand, has said that nuclear negotiations would be left to later discussions, while Iran has demanded that its frozen assets be released and U.S. sanctions lifted. Iranian state-linked media also said that the Strait of Hormuz would continue to be under Iran’s management.
Even if an agreement is reached, some observers have cast doubt on how permanent it will be, especially as Iran has expressed skepticism ever since Israel attacked it last June, disrupting earlier U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. With the accords, Trump may be seeking to get Israel on board so as to secure a longer-lasting peace, Figueroa says.
“It remains entirely possible that Israel will not abide by a U.S. ceasefire or continue operations in Lebanon, which would likely lead Iran to continue military operations against U.S. bases and allies in retaliation,” Figueroa says. Already, Netanyahu announced on Monday that Israel will intensify its strikes on Lebanon in a bid to “crush” Hezbollah, despite a nominal cease-fire. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon—which have killed more than 3,000 people since early March, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health—risk derailing U.S. peace talks with Iran, which has said that any peace deal must include Lebanon.
“Trump seems to hope that the prospect of wider normalized relations and economic investment will keep this from happening,” Figueroa says. But he adds, “unless Trump can provide the Iranian government guarantees against further attacks from Israel, they have little incentive to accept any agreement.”
And Trump has continued to oscillate between promises that a deal—and an end to the war that is hurting American wallets and spiking global energy prices—is near and threats to restart military attacks on Iran. Even as American and Iranian officials arrived in Qatar to continue negotiations on Monday, U.S. forces attacked missile sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran in what the U.S. military called “defensive” strikes.
“It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before,” Trump said in his post.