How the Vikings Can Be a Super Bowl Contender in 2026

Oddsmakers do not expect the Minnesota Vikings to be a top-tier Super Bowl contender in 2026, but they also didn’t expect the Seattle Seahawks to win the chip at this time last year. Therefore, we have a path outlined for Minnesota to follow in Seattle’s footsteps.

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Minnesota’s ceiling depends on five clean outcomes.

It’s all pretty basic stuff, but, you know, it just has to come true.

What Must Break Right for the Vikings

A list of reasons why the Vikings can win it all.

Minnesota Vikings tackle Christian Darrisaw lines up against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sep. 19, 2022, at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Darrisaw continued establishing himself as one of Minnesota’s cornerstone offensive linemen during an early-season primetime matchup, helping anchor the Vikings’ protection schemes against Philadelphia’s aggressive defensive front on the road. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Clean Bill of Health for the Offensive Line

Every starting offensive lineman for the Vikings, not named Will Fries, missed games last year. Every single one:

• Christian Darrisaw (7 missed games)
• Donovan Jackson (3 missed games)
• Ryan Kelly (9 missed games)
• Brian O’Neill (3 missed games)

The main guts of Minnesota’s starting offensive line missed over 25% of the season. The group ended up as the NFL’s 18th-best, according to Pro Football Focus, even with injuries. The working theory suggests that so many injuries probably won’t rattle the trenches again.

This will be vital because new Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray has missed about 25% of all career starts due to injury.

No Serious Defensive Regression

These are the Vikings’ defensive rankings per EPA/Play under Brian Flores since 2023:

• 2023: 17th
• 2024: 1st
• 2025: 3rd
• Overall 2023 to 2025: 2nd

That’s right — the Vikings’ showcase the NFL’s second-best defense overall with Flores in charge. Make no mistake: whatever happens with Minnesota’s offense in 2026, it already has a defense good enough to win a Super Bowl. That factoid has been bogged down over the last three seasons by offenses that either didn’t reach their ceilings or flamed out at the worst possible time (i.e., Sam Darnold in Week 18 and the 2024 playoffs).

If Flores’s defense doesn’t take a bizarre step back, Minnesota has the defensive personnel and coaching staff to win it all.

Run the Damn Football

Under Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota ranks as follows per rush playcalling percentage:

Vikings’ Rush Play Percentage,
Since 2022:

2025: 19th
2024: 18th
2023: 30th
2022: 30th

That’s not acceptable. No Super Bowl-winning team runs the ball as a complete afterthought. The Vikings don’t have to quite “establish the run” like the Mike Zimmer days, but they must run the ball at a balanced clip and avoid treating that section of the offense like a pain in the butt.

O’Connell always says he wants to “run to set up the pass,” and then doesn’t run the ball very much. For the Vikings to win the Super Bowl, they must call rushing plays more than the 19th-most in the NFL.

Top 12 or Top 15 QB Performance from Kyler Murray

The Vikings finished 9-8 last year while trotting out the NFL’s fifth-worst quarterback group per Dropback EPA/Play. To put it plainly — and to confirm your eye test — J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer were not very good. They formed the fifth-least efficient quarterback trio in the sport.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray reacts during a home matchup against the Seattle Seahawks on Sep. 25, 2025, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Murray continued leading Arizona’s offense in a key NFC West contest while attempting to keep the Cardinals competitive during the middle portion of the regular-season schedule. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Well, if Minnesota grabbed nine wins with the NFL’s 28th-ranked quarterback unit, the Vikings now need Murray to climb into the Top 12 or Top 15. This would suggest an 11-6, 12-5, 13-4, or 14-3 season.

Murray doesn’t have to be Tom Brady at all times, but he cannot play like 2025 Max Bromser. Murray must find the happy medium, playing turnover-free and dynamic football.

The Minnesota Sports Curse Ceases

The last time a men’s professional sports franchise won a championship in Minnesota? Thirty-five years ago. Since the Twins won the World Series in 1991, Minnesota’s four major men’s pro teams have combined for 130 completed championship attempts (full seasons from the Twins, Vikings, Wild, and Wolves) without another title.

One hundred and thirty failed seasons.

This will sound bizarre, so bear with us: the state of Minnesota is due for a championship based on sheer math and probability. In fact, Minnesota sports teams should rattle off something like 5-10 in a row to make up for the championship-less oddity. That’s how probabilities usually work.

Boston has 13 championships since 1992. Minnesota has zero. Minnesotans are really just asking for one. Why not the Vikings in 2026?

Symbiosis

Perhaps you’ve felt this way during Vikings football games over the last decade: when one thing is working, another is not. For example, Kirk Cousins played his best ball as a Viking in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and that was right about the time when the defense could no longer be trusted.

Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores speaks with reporters on Dec. 3, 2024, following Minnesota’s narrow win over the Arizona Cardinals two days earlier. Flores discussed the Vikings’ defensive performance and ongoing adjustments as Minnesota continued building momentum during the regular season under his aggressive and blitz-heavy defensive philosophy. Mandatory Credit: YouTube

In 2025, Flores’s defense turned out to be great, but Minnesota has to play Brosmer at quarterback.

Things like that.

Maybe once for the Vikings, all sides can jell. For example, Murray and the offense cook, Flores’s defense does Floresian defense things, and Will Reichard maintains his All-Pro form.

The Vikings are wildly overdue to showcase full synergy. They can win the Super Bowl if they do it in 2026.

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