PGA Championship: Our picks to win at Aronimink

· Yahoo Sports

Only two players have single-digit odds to win the 108th PGA Championship, which begins Thursday in suburban Philadelphia, and you know exactly who they are.

So when it comes to picking who will win the second major of the 2026 season, shouldn’t the choice be between Scottie Scheffler (+400) and Rory McIlroy (+750) and nobody else?

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Well … maybe. And as you’ll see below, probably. 

If we’re going to handicap this tournament, breaking down the Xs and Os, there’s this interesting comment from McIlroy on Tuesday when talking about the par-70 Aronimink: “Strategy off the tee is pretty nonexistent.”

But …

“The greens are the main focus this week, and I think getting yourself in the right sections of the greens, making sure you leave yourself below the hole for the most part. That's the key this week.”

So who does that favor?

Statistically speaking, Brooks Koepka leads the PGA Tour — yes, he’s back — in strokes gained on approaches so far this season, followed by Collin Morikawa and Adam Scott. McIlroy is seventh, Scheffler 42nd. 

Take that for what it’s worth. 

Now let’s get to our expert picks …

Cameron Young lines up a shot on the second hole during a practice round prior to the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club on May 12, 2026 in Newtown, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Carl Recine/Getty Images)Carl Recine via Getty Images

It's too early to say whether Cameron Young is legitimately one of the best players of his generation, but he's absolutely one of the best at putting himself in position to be one of the best. Young has at least a T4 finish at every major, and he was pretty much the only highlight of the United States Ryder Cup team at Bethpage. Other numbers trending in his favor: He ranks second on Tour in strokes gained, and third in the world rankings. Plus, he held the lead at the Masters last month for a couple holes, at least, so he’s getting closer. This is the week that he brings it home.

After what happened at Augusta National, why should we doubt him anymore? Rory McIlroy took a break after his historic Masters win, and he looked solid at times last week while shaking the rust off at the Truist Championship. And … McIlroy dominated in his last competitive round at Aronimink. He finished in fifth at the BMW Championship back in 2018 and shot the course record with a 62 on Thursday. As simple as this pick might be on paper, it’s the right one to make.

Yes, McIlroy won the Masters, but Scheffler was thisclose to pulling off one of the greatest comebacks in major tournament history. Down 12 strokes heading into the weekend, Scheffler was a millimeter from catching McIlroy and pushing the tournament into a playoff. All he’s done in the three tournaments since is finish 2-2(playoff)-2, while McIlroy has one T19 finish post Augusta. The world No. 1 is dialed in, making this, yes, a predictable pick, but a prudent one. 

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