Dynasty Stock Watch: David Montgomery, Chris Rodriguez among new Zero-RB heroes
· Yahoo Sports
With free agency mostly over, it's time to let the takes begin to flow.
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In 2025, a very defined, usage-based tier of running backs took over the landscape. And of the top 20 non-PPR fantasy scorers, every single back that emerged as a winner was drafted high. Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, Derrick Henry, and De'Von Achane were essentially all top 30 picks. If you wanted to use PPR scoring and expand our range to "top 30 RB finishers" instead of "top 20," you would add Chase Brown, Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne, and Ashton Jeanty. That's ... a total of one new back drafted outside of the top 30 — Etienne. The other major success story was, of course, Javonte Williams, who finished 31st in PPR scoring.
A lot of people would use that list and tell you that the Zero-RB strategy is dead. Not me, though. I've played fantasy football for decades and I've written "Lessons Learned" pieces for years. The only lesson to really learn is that entropy comes for us all. Last year? It came for Saquon Barkley.
Let's take stock of how free agency and the offseason have changed life for everybody — or not, in some cases.
Stock Up: Chris Rodriguez and Bhayshul Tuten
This battle is currently presented as "in progress." Tuten, of course, was drafted last year and everyone said he'd be good, and now that Etienne is gone, of course, he simply will be and there's no need to examine it even further than that.
But just for a second, I want to talk about why I think Rodriguez is the guy to watch in this backfield. Jaguars head coach Liam Coen coached Rodriguez at Kentucky. The love affair is clear, with Rodriguez saying that Coen "had to be one of my favorite coaches up until that point." Coen, meanwhile, said this about Rodriguez at Kentucky: "Really going to miss being able to hand the ball off and know you would get 4 yards. A lot of times, that wasn’t scheme. That was Chris." There's the fact that the Jaguars signed him almost the instant the Commanders didn't tender him as a restricted free agent. And there's the fact that he got a strong amount of guaranteed money in the deal, as well.
One of the things that Etienne never was able to give the Jaguars was a consistent pounder in short yardage and near the goal line — that's part of the reason that Trevor Lawrence wound up rushing for nine touchdowns last year. The Jaguars knew they had to add that sort of play design in short-yardage. I think they'll simply let Rodriguez roll with the ball, and right now while everyone is focused on Tuten, I think Rodriguez profiles as a steal.
Crisitunity: Ashton Jeanty
What is a crisitunity? Well, it's a joining of the words crisis and opportunity, as popularized by Show Only Millenials Have Watched The Simpsons. And I think it's a useful way to look at fantasy football in a lot of situations. You would never get an opportunity to buy Ashton Jeanty this low without 2025 happening. And so ... is 2025 the beginning of a crisis? Or is it an opportunity?
The optimistic case:
Fernando Mendoza will bring more upside to the quarterback position than a beaten-down Geno Smith. We know that Klint Kubiak loves to run the ball — he just did it all year for the Seahawks. Tyler Linderbaum was paid like a legitimate difference-maker in the interior line and he just might be that. More importantly, as much as Kubiak praised the idea of bringing in someone to split snaps with Jeanty, it didn't actually happen. The main backup for Jeanty at this point might be Dylan Laube. I'm sure that the Raiders will add somebody. They are visiting with Najee Harris this week. But the fact that it wasn't a priority add for them speaks pretty loudly.
The counter-argument:
What if Jeanty is just Breece Hall? What if he just toils for a bunch of bad teams that can't play offense and so it doesn't really matter how good he is? The last difference-making center that hit the free-agent market (per AAV) was Lloyd Cushenberry, who transformed the Titans from an offensive line with a lot of question marks to an offensive line with still a lot of question marks before getting hurt. And while I personally believe Mendoza will be pretty good, we can’t ignore the work that Zachary Kreuger has invested in bringing down the No. 1 quarterback's empire before it even starts. Nasty work.
The verdict:
I'm optimistic enough in Jeanty's insertion into the Kenneth Walker role to think this has a real chance of working. But I don't love him at ADP currently, where we're pricing him like a sure-fire top prospect who will build off his rookie season. He's behind Barkley on some sites, but ahead in others. He's ahead of Walker on most sites, ahead of Henry on most sites ... I'd be more comfortable with him near the Chase Brown section of the rankings, closer to 25 than 15.
The upside is the reason he gets the rank, and I suspect the rank will deflate a bit as we get deeper into the offseason and real competition is added to the room. But it's not like Kubiak doesn't know how to handle a No. 1 back. Alvin Kamara got 228 touches in 2024. For me, it's purely a price point issue. If Jeanty starts hanging out with his peers like Hall and Etienne in the "I like the back and the role, I'm not sure about the offense" group, he's a worthy bet on the upside. If I have to pre-pay for the upside closer to the top 10, I'm gonna have to let someone else hold that and hope it works out.
Stock Down: Breece Hall
I dunno, I feel bad using my platform for this, especially after bringing him up in the last segment. Hall's a great running back. He's stuck with the Jets, and the franchise tag means he couldn't escape if he wanted to. But, we need to be honest with ourselves: Did Aaron Glenn fix the offense when he brought in multiple-time 2020 in-season firee Frank Reich? Did bringing in Geno Smith dramatically alter the course of the Jets offense? I'm gonna bet on "no." I think Glenn probably would have been fired after one year if he'd been anyone but former Jets cornerback Aaron Glenn.
Then there's how last season played out. Hall had 243 carries and 48 targets, yes, but he averaged 16.1 rushing attempts a game over the final 11 games of the season. Games that Braelon Allen did not play in. Over the first five weeks? 11.2 carries a game. I think there's every reason for a team that clearly is playing a long-term game (see: three first-round picks in 2027, Smith at quarterback) to figure out if they'd rather keep Allen than Hall. I kind of just hate that Hall is here, if I'm being honest. I don't understand what point it serves other than the Jets saying "we might as well spend this money because this guy is valuable."
Maybe this is the year he gets an in-season trade. We saw how that worked out in 2025. I can't recommend hoping you run into last year's Hall runout again, that feels like a usage scenario that only happens in a lost season where the No. 2 back misses most of the year.
Stock Up: David Montgomery
In Montgomery's first year with the Lions, with a rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, he had 219 carries, 1,015 rushing yards, and 13 touchdowns. The usage declined gradually not because of Montgomery being severely injured (he did miss a few weeks here or there), but because Gibbs was simply undeniable.
Now he comes to the Texans, a team that desperately wants to establish it. DeMeco Ryans never wants C.J. Stroud to throw a difficult pass again in his life. While the 2025 Texans struggled to run the ball, Montgomery is in effect a second crack at the Joe Mixon move after Mixon returned to his home planet for some reason. Mixon handled 245 carries in just 14 starts in 2024. I like Woody Marks as a receiving back, but teams don't trade for running backs like Montgomery to platoon them. This isn't a split backfield in the slightest, and I think it could be an easy Montgomery Culture Win.
And you don't even have to pay a top 50 pick for him, yet. I don't understand it. This is as free as money gets barring injury. Montgomery might be 29, but all that Gibbs usage has kept the tread off his tires. The Texans aren't some dynamic passing offense waiting to emerge with the right play-action calls. They are here to crack skulls and throw rocks.
Crisitunity: R.J. Harvey
The Hater's Case:
Boy, where to begin. Harvey scored 12 touchdowns last year and those touchdowns hid the fact that he only crossed 70 rushing yards twice and 50 receiving yards twice. That's despite being the main back for the final seven games of the season and facing such dominant defenses as: the Week 18 Chargers Who Wanted To Stay Home, the Week 17 Chiefs Who Simmed To End Of The Season Sans Mahomes, A Commanders Squad That Fired Their Defensive Coordinator Already, and so on. The Broncos spent the offseason flirting with better running backs before realizing that running backs became Actually Expensive now. But they brought back JK Dobbins, who just handily started over Harvey for nine games before suffering his latest-season ending injury, this one a Lisfranc. Dobbins is never a good bet to stay healthy, but the Broncos paid him (two years, $16 million, $8 million guaranteed) like a starting back.
The Counter-Argument:
The Broncos drafted Harvey in the second round. He's young. These things take time. I'm not saying this to try to be glib so much as note that the development that we'd see isn't surface-level stuff. And, well, touchdown scoring is a pretty important skill. Re-signing Dobbins is actually a fantastic run-out for Harvey considering, again, Dobbins has literally never finished a 17-game season. In fact, the only year he even came close is as a Ravens rookie in 2020, when he put in 15 games.
The verdict:
I will have a low exposure to Harvey again this year because I don't believe in ceiling cases for Sean Payton's running backs. Tyler Badie is still here to insert himself into the conversation on passing downs. We're not sure when Taysom Hill will come on board but we're all thinking about it strongly, right?
But ... I say all that and if you told me that Harvey had a 15-touchdown runout in 2026, I wouldn't be surprised. I also wouldn't be stunned if he managed 20. It's a good offense and the second-year leap is always the biggest. The upside is undeniable. The volume feels more fraught than I'd like at this exact moment in time.
Stock Down: Bucky Irving
I just don't see how we get away from the last five months of Irving's career without thinking that the Buccaneers don't really believe in him, and that's a big problem for his case as a usage back.
Shedding Rachaad White to free agency and (reportedly) being ready to sever ties with Sean Tucker as a restricted free agent was going to open up a major vacuum at the position for Tampa Bay. White was more of a nuisance than a major drain on Irving's playing time, but Tucker was a serial vulture, scoring seven rushing touchdowns last year and seeing 21 of his 86 carries in the red zone. He had lines of 7/29/1, 4/7/1, and 4/3/1 down the stretch.
Instead, Tucker is back. And instead of White, the Buccaneers made a rare splurge in free agency by bringing in passing-game aficionado Kenneth Gainwell on a two-year deal. Gainwell just spent his 2025 season killing Jaylen Warren's Zero-RB value. Now, Irving enters a situation where he might not be the most trusted back in either the red zone or on passing downs. And at that point, well, what would you say we can rely on for fantasy purposes? It doesn't feel like much. Certainly not enough to be more than a Zero-RB case.