Johannesburg faces fierce political contest
· Citizen
Political parties that performed well in the 2024 national and provincial elections are expected to do even better in the upcoming local government elections.
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But for those that underperformed, it’s tough luck.
That’s according to a report by the Centre for Strategic Leadership (CSL) in Johannesburg, presented to investors and stakeholders about what is at stake in the 2026 local government elections.
Elections pit major parties against each other
The elections are expected to take place in November, with some predicting January 2027.
Both the ANC, which dropped from 57% to 40% of the vote in May 2024, and the EFF, which fell from 10.8% to 9.5%, may decline further in the municipal polls.
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The DA slightly increased from 20.7% to 21.8%, while the MK party, which replaced the EFF as the third-largest party in the country, obtained 14.5%, despite entering the race for the first time in 2024.
Presently, there is uncertainty around the ANC mayoral candidates as moves are afoot to recall Dada Morero in Johannesburg.
The CSL report indicates that Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA and the DA are set to compete fiercely against each other in the City of Joburg, with the mayorship going to either of them, depending on which of the two can cobble together a formidable coalition to take over the city.
Johannesburg’s challenges
The biggest metro has faced a range of challenges over the past 15 years, including infrastructure decay, dilapidated public healthcare facilities, poor basic service delivery and an unstable government.
“Rough estimates from various public sources indicate a significant investment opportunity, otherwise a looming potential catastrophe,” the report said.
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Investors were told that despite its poor infrastructure maintenance and substandard leadership, Johannesburg remained the most economically developed city in South Africa and the African continent.
“However, its rankings are rather shabby going into the 2026 local government elections,” CSL said. South African cities are ranked much lower on the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI), with Cape Town and Johannesburg competing for the last two spots.
CSL cited critics and delivery figures, reporting that Herman Mashaba’s mayorship period (2016-19) in Johannesburg was a high-water mark for “pro-poor” governance and effective management that has not been matched since.
Chaotic mayoral period from 2020 to 2026
“The chaotic mayoral period from 2020 through 2026 was characterised by reckless opportunism among political parties, rather than strategic cooperation and cohesion. The biggest parties in Johannesburg have pursued obscure agendas that do not reflect the wishes of the voters on the ground,” CSL said.
The report explained the link between government performance and electoral support. It said the ANC experienced increased electoral support in most municipalities in the 2006 local government elections.
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“These results were preceded by a record 69.69% support, which earned the ANC a two-thirds majority after the 2004 general election, an era characterised as South Africa’s golden age in the post-apartheid dispensation.
“After the 2007 ANC Polokwane conference, service delivery performance, job creation and GDP growth all deteriorated. In the 2011 local government elections, the electoral support of the ruling ANC started declining across the country.
“The City of Joburg’s political landscape is defined by intense multiparty contestation and a prominent kingmaker role for smaller parties. The metro had at least 18 parties in the council, the largest number of political party representation across all municipal councils in the country.
Joburg’s political landscape
“This political fragmentation in Joburg creates instability as the bigger parties try to adjust to their new roles, wanting to enforce leadership in the face of declining electoral support,” the report said.
Both the ANC and the DA have fragmented over the years, with parties of similar ideologies forming in parallel.
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The ANC’s Congress-tradition splinters include EFF, Cope, Al Jama-ah, ATM, MKP, Abantu Batho Congress and Mayibuye, while the DA’s liberal splinters comprise ActionSA, Rise Mzansi, Build One South Africa and Good Party.
In Johannesburg, it is highly unlikely that any single party will receive a majority in the local government elections.
The current coalition arrangement in Johannesburg, led by mayor Dada Morero, has been modest in its performance.
Frontrunners
A metro of Joburg’s magnitude is expected to have the capacity to deliver basic services such as water, electricity and waste collection for its residents, as well as public infrastructure maintenance.
“The experience of the current frontrunners in Helen Zille and Herman Mashaba in terms of governing South Africa’s biggest cities bodes well for private investment,” the report said.
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