Fantasy football impact of QB carousel from NFL Free Agency: Will Kyler Murray bounce back?

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NFL Free Agency delivered a whirlwind of moves (and there are still players out there unsigned!) in which the scope of the fantasy football landscape was forever changed. Here, Matt Harmon breaks down the changes made at the most important position in all of football.

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I’ve spent the last few years bemoaning Kyler Murray’s fit in a Drew Petzing offense with Marvin Harrison Jr. because of Murray’s lack of willingness to consistently throw over the intermediate middle of the field more than almost anyone else in the football media. Some of those same worries should be present about Murray fully fitting into what Kevin O’Connell wants from his ideal starting quarterback. 

That being said, when you whiff on a top-10 pick at quarterback — every action the Vikings have taken the last few months has shown they think JJ McCarthy is exactly that — there are no ideal quick fixes. With that reality established, getting a quarterback of Murray’s quality for $1.3 million as your starter is a pretty significant win. Even as Murray’s play has come under fire the last three seasons, he still ranks 18th in EPA per play (out of 57 qualifying quarterbacks) from 2023 to 2025 in a situation we just noted didn’t ideally fit his skills. For context, McCarthy ranked 50th; this is an obvious upgrade from what Minnesota had last year — there’s no way around it. 

Even if Murray is an average or slightly above average starter, he can be good enough to get Justin Jefferson back to top-five receiver consideration. If we’re being real, that’s about the level that Sam Darnold played at for most of 2024, when the offense was more boom/bust than consistently efficient. Murray won’t access some of the work Jefferson did on dig routes over the middle with Darnold but he can still thrive anywhere, including on the static boundary throws outside that he worked well on with DeAndre Hopkins during their time together in Arizona.

Jefferson is a big winner with this transaction, as is Murray himself, who may not get the bump up the ADP ranks he deserves. I do still have questions about the rest of Minnesota’s surrounding cast, so for now, I’m hesitant to call guys like Jordan Addison or certainly T.J. Hockenson or the running backs winners. 

The Dolphins moved on from Tua Tagovailoa this offseason and incurred a massive dead cap charge to do it. However, they were still able to cobble together enough money to sign Malik Willis to what essentially amounts to a markup on the Justin Fields contract the Jets handed out last offseason. As we saw, that doesn’t guarantee anything long-term but it does give you a good runway to be the starter in an experimental season for a rebuilding team. 

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Fields played his way out of that job in 2025; it’ll be up to Willis to hang onto the gig for longer with the 2026 Dolphins. 

The obvious fantasy fallout of this move is Willis, who is one of the most dynamic rushing quarterbacks in the sport, launching himself into QB1 territory right away. The more interesting conversation revolves around his impact on the pass-catchers. You’re unlikely to run a high-volume passing attack with Willis as your quarterback, even if he performs well. That will change the target projections on Dolphins players beyond the first-read option. As long as major receiver names aren’t added to the mix, Jaylen Waddle should be fine to lead the team in targets by a wide margin.

Quietly, I think De’Von Achane might be in more danger, considering he’s scored a league-high 240.5 half PPR points on passing plays (44% of his total points) among running backs the last two seasons combined. 

The New York Jets were so bullish on Geno Smith being their 2026 starter that they traded for him rather than let him get released and have to compete for other teams for his services. That alone tells me he’s the odds-on favorite to start all year for the Jets. 

All things considered, it could be worse for the Jets and, frankly, for Smith himself. We won’t be returning to the level of play Smith offered for the Seahawks in 2022 to 2024, where he was, for the most part, an above-average to even good starting quarterback. However, the situation in Las Vegas last year between a poorly coached offensive line, a staff with way too many cooks in the kitchen and a lackluster group of pass-catchers with Brock Bowers hurt, I think Smith was made to look worse in 2025 than he is. 

If he lands somewhere in the middle or even lower middle of the range between his Seahawks days and Raiders form, Smith can be an upgrade over what the Jets rolled out last year. Even more critical, he’s a veteran passer who can handle a dropback-heavy script, which was never going to be in the cards for a Justin Fields-led outfit. 

I’m not selling Smith as a major positive for the Jets. Yet, considering the alternatives, and the fact that this Jets offensive line projects to be better than Smith’s protection from 2025 in Las Vegas, there were worse outcomes on the table for Garrett Wilson, AD Mitchell, Breece Hall and any other Jets players we care about. 

Atlanta was able to get Tagovailoa on a cheap, veteran minimum salary, since Miami will be footing the bill for his 2026 salary after releasing its former starter. It’s a financially stable choice for Atlanta, given some of its cap limitations. I just don’t think we can call it exciting. 

One of the biggest selling points for the upcoming Tua versus Michael Penix Jr. battle at quarterback is that they are both left-handed. So, switching one out for the other doesn’t completely change the offense. Other than that, though, these are two pretty different quarterbacks — neither of which I think is an ideal fit for Kevin Stefanski’s offense or players who can maximize more than one pass-catcher is a given season. I’m not sure either guy is worth rooting for to get more playing time if you’re invested in Drake London or another Falcons player. 

If I had to guess, Tagovailoa opens training camp as the starter but both quarterbacks make starts this season. Nothing out of this new coaching staff’s collective mouths this offseason has been anything more than a casual endorsement of Penix, a guy whom no one employed by the team currently had a hand in drafting. Not to mention, Tagovailoa is the healthier of the two passers right now. Theoretically, he’s shown to be a better over-the-middle and play-action passer than Penix in the NFL, which would make him a cleaner fit into what this offense likely wants to do. 

Gardner Minshew has proven himself a perfectly fine NFL backup quarterback … in the right offensive ecosystem. That has primarily been when paired with Shane Steichen in an RPO-heavy system. What I’m expecting from the Cardinals under Mike LaFleur, who comes from the Shanahan and McVay world, will look quite different. Given that reality and the fact that Minshew has no connections to anyone on this staff, this was an extremely puzzling pairing. 

If Arizona’s true plan is to start Jacoby Brissett this season and maybe sprinkle in some Minshew starts if it goes poorly, it’s hard to come up with a stronger message to give fans permission to just tune in next season. 

Brissett has at least shown an ability to run an under-center, over-the-middle passing game with high volume last season in Arizona. For fantasy purposes, we know that means the pass-catchers can get fed here, especially in negative game-script. We also know it will lead to plenty of losses. Either Arizona has another surprise quarterback move up its sleeve — Ty Simpson as a first-round shocker in the NFL Draft — or this is set up to be one of the least inspiring quarterback duels I can recall. 

There’s a possibility that Justin Fields sees zero snaps in 2026 for the Chiefs or he could be out there for the first month of the season to give Patrick Mahomes time to fully recover from a December torn ACL. We also can’t rule out the possibility that Andy Reid has a few galaxy-brain packages designed for Fields or he’s a QB sneak specialist for the team. What we know is that when Fields is out there, he’s a fantasy option because of his rushing ability. That’s been true even when he’s played poorly and been on bad teams. The Chiefs, at the very least, represent a pretty obvious upgrade over teams he’s played with previously and Fields has experience playing under Matt Nagy early in his career, who comes off Reid’s coaching tree. This is a situation to monitor, just in case Fields starts, but nothing more. 

General manager John Spytek put his intention to add a veteran quarterback to the roster front and center, to avoid forcing a rookie (Fernando Mendoza) into the starting role in Week 1. The Raiders have since been linked to Kirk Cousins, a totally sensible marriage given the familiarity the quarterback would have with much of Klint Kubiak’s offensive language. However, I’d still be skeptical that a 2026 version of Cousins would beat out Mendoza to open the season as the starter. Given Cousins and Kubiak’s ties to Shanahan's offensive trees and Spytek’s stated ambitions, we can’t rule it out. 

The Colts locked up Daniel Jones on a two-year deal to do their best to replicate a historically efficient offense from the first eight weeks of the season. His torn Achilles rehab is the uncomfortable variable in all this. Jones is pushing to start Week 1 but that shouldn’t be viewed as a lock. The Colts have given Anthony Richardson Sr. permission to seek a trade and I’m not sure if Riley Leonard showed enough in brief flashes as a 2025 rookie to be the guy to guide them through the first month of the season, if needed, in 2026. 

The Browns have already been preparing the public for Deshaun Watson getting another shot via leaks to the media. Shedeur Sanders is the fallback option and may even be the favorite to start Week 1. I’d still expect the Browns to add another rider to the carousel at some point. 

I’m operating under the assumption that he will be and it appears the Steelers are, as well. Sooner or later, actual confirmation would be nice. Pittsburgh waiting anywhere close to as long as they did last year for an answer would be beyond foolish.

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